by Bill Bonner, Daily Reckoning.com.au:
Whoa! Investors are acting like it’s 2007 all over again.
USA Today has the story:
‘NEW YORK — Emboldened by soaring stock prices and record-low borrowing costs, stock investors are taking out loans against their portfolios at the fastest pace since before the Great Recession hit.
‘So-called margin debt hit $379.5 billion in March, the highest level since July 2007 when such debt hit an all-time record of $381.4 billion, according [...]
The CBO said this week that America’s fiscal deficit will be much smaller than anyone thought, and that long term debt growth will slow by at least 3 points through the next decade.
That’s good news right?
In his note today, Deutsche Bank‘s Joe LaVorgna says there is even more than meets the eye in the report.
Specifically, the rosier CBO report means there’s now less pressure on Congress to keep the Sequester, and more [...]
by Phoenix Capital Research
The market is beyond overstretched at this point on a short-term, intermediate term, and long-term basis. The sheer number of warning signals is staggering.
The blow off top out of the rising wedge pattern we noted before is rolling over indicating this is likely a false breakout:
The Russell 2000 is lagging well behind the S&P 500. Small caps, in general, should lead a rally if it’s going to [...]
Over the last three days, countries around the world have been publishing their manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) reports.
And the message around the world is clear: manufacturing activity decelerated sharply in April.
The U.S. and China are growing marginally, but both decelerated. Europe continues to be in sharp contraction. And even Germany saw its manufacturing sector begin to contract in April.
According to JP Morgan, the global manufacturing PMI fell to 50.5 in April, down from [...]
by Phoenix Capital Research
The markets are holding up based on hope for more stimulus from the Fed and ECB this week (Fed FOMC is Tuesday and Wednesday, the ECB meeting is on Thursday).
This is a very dangerous environment. We are entering the seasonal period in which stocks typically do poorly (May-November). Earnings guidance is falling. And even the massaged GDP number for 1Q13 was lower than expected.
In simple terms, we [...]
by Phoenix Capital Research
For the last four years, the financial world has traded largely based on hope of more intervention from Central Banks.
That was and is the single driving factor of the markets. Good news was good news (it’s a recovery!) but bad news was even better (the Fed will have to print more money!) as far as stocks were concerned.
However, against this backdrop several issues began to develop. The [...]
by Phoenix Capital Research
The markets rallied hard yesterday, thanks to promises of more from Europe. However, the global economy is once again contracting with the bad data coming out of both China and Germany: two of the biggest exporters in the world.
With that in mind, the S&P 500 looks as though its initial jump to the upside from its rising wedge pattern could have been a false breakout: a move [...]
by Phoenix Capital Research
If you happened to simply glance over the headlines in the financial media over the last few months, you’d think the European Crisis was over.
In November, no less than France’s Prime Minister, Spain’s Prime Minister, and even Germany’s Finance Minister suggested that the worst is over for the Euro Crisis or that the Crisis as a whole was over completely.
Unfortunately for them, the markets don’t seem to [...]
Only hours after two bombs were detonated near the finish line of a Boston marathon, evidence is beginning to emerge suggesting that the act may have been a false flag attack.
While reports continue to emerge from the scene, a number of facts point toward the typical setup used to devise, control, and execute such an attack as took place around the 9/11, 7/7, and OKC bombings as well as the [...]
‘SLIPPING INTO SLOWDOWN’: The 9 Scariest Slides From Goldman’s New Presentation On The Weakening Global Economy
Time for a pause?
Goldman Sachs macro analysts Noah Weisberger and Aleksandar Timcenko are out with a new presentation on the state of the global economy.
The title: “Slipping into slowdown.”
According to the data, it looks like the global recovery story may be on hold for now, and markets around the world are not sending encouraging signals.
And some of [...]
From Sober Look:
U.S. equity markets are touching multi-year highs as investors increasingly allocate to the risk-on trade. But there are a few signals that may indicate some need for caution – at least in the short-term:
1. Consumer sentiment remains quite weak, which could easily create headwinds for corporate earnings.
2. Energy prices have been on the rise, with WTI crude oil at the highest level since September.
3. Regional manufacturing data isn’t [...]
The Central Bank Is Starting To Say, Enough Is Enough
Fed says it’s running out of bullets
FOMC signals that bond purchases may stop
(MarketWatch) — For the first time since the financial crisis started five years ago, the Federal Reserve has at last made its first signal that its extraordinary loose monetary policy will start to get tougher.
To be sure, the change isn’t gigantic. There’s no sense that interest rates will [...]
Credit: Collinger et al., The Lancet, Early Online Publication (17 December)
A 53-year-old woman paralyzed from the neck down by a genetic neurodegenerative condition has learned to manipulate a robotic arm with her thoughts, researchers report today in The Lancet. In the video above, she uses the arm to remove plastic cones stacked on a base and restack them one by one on another base. Surgeons had implanted two 4×4-millimeter grids [...]
By V. Phani Kumar
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Business conditions for Chinese manufacturers continued to improve in December, with HSBC’s initial Purchasing Managers’ Index rising to a 14-month high of 50.9, according to the survey results released Friday. The reading compares with HSBC’s final PMI print of 50.5 for November. A reading above 50 signals an improvement in activity. HSBC’s initial or “flash” PMI reading is based on responses from [...]
December 2, 2012
The United States must prepare for a time when it no longer is at war with Al-Qaeda and when sweeping legal powers ushered in after the September 11, 2001 attacks come to an end, the Pentagon’s top lawyer said.
The address by Pentagon general counsel Jeh Johnson marked the first time a senior US official publicly raised the possibility of an end to the so-called “war on terror,” launched [...]
China’s HSBC services PMI declined to 53.5 in October from 54.3 in September.
But any number above 50 signals expansion.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/china-hsbc-services-pmi-2012-11#ixzz2BJITmqo2
by GoldCore Gold Bullion
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,723.25, EUR 1,330.59, and GBP 1,065.64 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,718.00, EUR 1,321.54, and GBP 1,065.89 per ounce.
Silver is trading at $32.60/oz, €25.25/oz and £20.26/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,576.50/oz, palladium at $612.80/oz and rhodium at $1,100/oz.
Gold climbed $11.70 or 0.68% yesterday and closed at $1,721.20. Silver surged to hit a high of $32.411 and subsequently gave up some of [...]
China HSBC PMI 49.5, Exp. 49.1, 8 month high. Last 47.9. Notes “Input costs and output charges increase”
The unofficial HSBC China manufacturing PMI just came out.
The October reading climbed to 49.5 from 47.9 in September.
This final number was notably stronge than the HSBC China Flash (or preliminary) number, which came in at 49.1 last week.
Here are the key points from Markit:
Modest fall in output signalled
New orders rise for the first time in a year
Input costs and output charges [...]
A Much Worse Stock Market Crash Is Coming And Monetary Policy Is “USELESS” Under Current Bleak Conditions
Peter Schiff: “The data is clear, 50% unemployment, a 90% stock market drop, and 100% annual inflation . . . starting in 2012.”
Investors need to prepare for an upcoming stock market crash that will be “worse than 2008.”
That’s according to a well-respected author and investor, making a recent appearance on Fox Business.
Peter Schiff, the [...]
The financial and banking industries are on high alert tonight as a massive cyberattack continues, with potentially millions of customers of Bank of America, PNC and Wells Fargo finding themselves blocked from banking online.
“There is an elevated level of threat,” said Doug Johnson, a vice president and senior adviser of the American Bankers Association. “The threat level is now high.”
“This is twice as large as any flood we have ever seen,” said [...]
From Short Side of Long:
It has now been about a year since I did a major sentiment post on the equity market. Back in late September and early October of 2011, I was insisting that if I had to choose between equities, bonds or cash – I would have chosen to buy equities.
While there was the possibility of a recession, personally I remained in the camp that we would not [...]
From Dividend Stock Analysis:
Dividend Investing is a popular investing strategy based on a simple principle: the payment of regular distributions to shareholders. This investing technique is interesting because it allows the investor to benefit from both a gain in capital due to good financial performance and dividend payments that make the wait more comfortable. Unfortunately, I’ve seen too many investors keep losing dividend stocks simply because they are receiving these [...]
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — As China decides what sort of action to take amid a deepening slowdown, a state media editorial warned that massive spending to boost the economy could be “detrimental,” given the bad debt problems now weighing on banks from Beijing’s previous stimulus.
“Just four years after the last stimulus plan took effect, the Chinese economy faces the same challenges, albeit with a much more complicated external [...]
One of the world’s most popular and widely-owned stocks could be in big trouble
Is Apple Stock About To Crash?
I’m serious. Does it make you angry to read that? Do you feel like you’re doing something wrong going short America’s favorite stock? Is it a bad thing to wish awful things upon a company who provides us with such glorious technology?
Fortunately as market participants, we don’t have to care about any [...]
Since there have been tens of thousands of lawsuits filed internally in Germany with its constitutional court alleging the ESM is illegal, it was only a matter of time before the Germans decided to sue the ECB as well for its “unlimited” bond buying. The time has arrived. From Bloomberg:
TILLICH SUPPORTS LEGAL STEPS AGAINST ECB BOND BUYING: WELT
TILLICH SAYS ECB BOND BUYING SIGNALS EFSF, ESM NOT ENOUGH: WELT
TILLICH: ECB MANDATE [...]
From Evan Soltas:
The standard unemployment rate is a deeply flawed measurement of macroeconomic conditions. It is so flawed that a decline in the unemployment rate as we measure it is not necessarily good news, nor is an increase in the unemployment rate surely bad news. Movements in the unemployment rate are — or perhaps have become — ambiguous signals of economic improvement or worsening.
What’s wrong with the unemployment rate? The [...]
Rep. Dennis Kucinich has introduced a bill that would require cell phones to warn consumers how much radiation is coming from their phones, saying that until science can disprove a link to cancer, the public should be told more information.
His bill, the Cell Phone Right to Know Act, would also demand a study of cell phones and health, looking at a broad array of signals that smart phones now send [...]