The latest data show that the real M1 money supply – cash and overnight deposits – for China, the eurozone, Britain and the US has been contracting since the early Spring. Any further falls risk a full-blown global recession.
Clear signs of trouble are emerging in the US, until now the last bastion of strength. The New York Institute of Supply Management said its ISM business index – a proxy for [...]
All key indicators of China’s money supply are flashing warning signs. The broader measures have slumped to stagnation levels not seen since the late 1990s.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International business editor
6:32PM BST 13 May 2012
Narrow M1 data for April is the weakest since modern records began. Real M1 deposits – a leading indicator of economic growth six months or so ahead – have contracted since November.
They are shrinking faster that at any time [...]
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
7:00PM GMT 11 Mar 2012
The global liquidity cycle has already rolled over. Assuming that no fresh action is taken,
world economic growth will peak within a couple of months and then fade in the second half of the year -
with grim implications for Europe’s Latin bloc.
Monetarists have had a good run during the Great Recession, and were quick to spot the turn-around in the US economy in mid-2011.
By Ambrose [...]
Friday, October 28, 2011 – by Staff Report
Data released by the European Central Bank show that real M1 deposits in Portugal have fallen at an annualised rate of 21pc over the last six months, buckling violently in September “Portugal appears to have entered a Grecian vortex and monetary trends have deteriorated sharply in Spain, with a decline of 8.4pc,” said Simon Ward, from Henderson Global Investors. Portugal must cut interest rates [...]
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Telegraph
Data released by the European Central Bank show that real M1 deposits in Portugal have fallen at an annualised rate of 21pc over the past six months, buckling violently in September.
“Portugal appears to have entered a Grecian vortex and monetary trends have deteriorated sharply in Spain, with a decline of 8.4pc,” said Simon Ward, from Henderson Global Investors. Mr Ward said the ECB must cut interest rates “immediately” [...]
21.40 Barely 16 hours after Sarkozy stood in front of the cameras and told the world that all was going to be ok for Greece, international business editor Ambrose Evans-Pritchard says it’s not Greece, or even Italy we need to worry about.
Monetary contraction in Portugal has intensified at an alarming pace and is mimicking the pattern seen in Greece before its economy spiralled out of control, raising concerns that the EU [...]
Reverse Purchase Agreements from foreign official and international accounts at the US Federal Reserve.
Central banks and official bodies have parked record sums of dollars at the US Federal Reserve for safe-keeping, indicating a clear loss of trust in commercial banks.
Data from the St Louis Fed shows that reserve funds from “official foreign accounts” have doubled since the start of the year, [...]
By Claus Vistesen
The Calafia Beach Pundit raises an interesting question in relation to the recent surge in the US money supply, which he suggests might be a reflection of a scramble for USD assets. More specifically, the argument would seem to be that a silent run on European banks is in the works as money is moved into perceived safe USD liquid assets.
As this chart of [...]