China’s debt/GDP ratio of 20-30% isn’t as attractive as it looks, writes Patrick Chovanec

Toss in contingent liabilities for the banks, local governments, and things like the railway system, and even optimists put the number at 90%. Pessimists put it at 200% or higher, Greek territory. Remember, Irish government finances were the envy of the world until its real estate boom went bust. In any case, “China’s fiscal resources are not as limitless as they seem.”

http://chovanec.wordpress.com/2011/12/17/bloomberg-hard-landing-in-sight/

Earlier this week, I appeared on Bloomberg, and the interview [...]

CHINA: The Hard Landing Is Still In Sight

by Patrick Chovanec, An American Perspective From China

Earlier this week, I appeared on Bloomberg, and the interview was posted online under the cheerful headline “Chovanec says China faces harder landing than expected.”  I know, I’m a bundle of Christmas cheer these days — but as I said at the Economist conference a few weeks ago (in an allusion to Game of Thrones), “Winter is coming,” and these days, it’s hard to avoid noticing a distinct [...]