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by goldsilverworlds Let’s go straight to the conclusion: too many mysteries are occurring in the gold market, in 2013, to accept them as regular facts. No matter at which “side” you are of what we consider the most controversial asset, you simply cannot deny that the following list of events is something stronger than suspicious. Most importantly, although the mainstream media were very fast to announce the potential sale of 10 tonnes [...] Subprime 2.0 – Auto Loan Deliquency Balances Rise 24% YoY As we warned six weeks ago, the Fed’s ZIRP side-effects have driven auto-lenders to scrape the bottom of the subprime-lending barrel once again (loans to subprime borrowers +18% YoY). It seems, based on the Fed’s latest data, that this over-exuberant lending is coming back to bite once again as delinquent balances surge 23.9% year-over-year (though optimistically Experian reflects “obviously, we never want to see [...] U.S. factory orders down 4.0% in March Factory orders fell 4% in March, weaker than expected, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast a 2.8% drop in factory orders. Orders for durable goods were revised to a 5.8% decline from the prior estimate of a 5.7% decrease. New orders for nondurable goods decreased 2.4%. Shipments fell 1.0%, while inventories were flat. Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding [...] London Gold Market Report from Ben Traynor, BullionVault Tuesday 30 April 2013, 07:15 EDT
Gold’s Recovery “Appears to be Faltering”, But “Diminishing Expectations” for Early End to QE Ahead of Fed Meeting
FOLLOWING a dip during Asian trading, the gold price climbed back above $1470 per ounce Tuesday morning in London, broadly in line with where it was a day earlier, with China’s markets shut for this week’s Labor Day holiday.
Silver ended the morning in London around [...] by GoldCore Today’s AM fix was USD 1,378.00, EUR 1,054.00 and GBP 900.48 per ounce. Gold fell sharply $131.10 or 8.81% yesterday to $1,357.00/oz and silver slid to $22.80 finished -12.69%. Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg) Gold rebounded as store of value and diversificaiton buyers deemed a 14% plunge over two days to be excessive and an Asian central banker said that [...] London Gold Market Report from Ben Traynor, BullionVault Thursday 21 March 2013, 08:00 EST
Gold “To Fall to $1400 by End 2013″ But “Could See $2000 Next Year”, Cyprus “Will Lose Emergency Liquidity If No Bailout Agreed
THE DOLLAR gold price hovered just below $1610 an ounce Thursday morning, while stocks and commodities fell along with Euro as disappointing economic data was added to news that Cyprus’s banks will remain closed until next Tuesday.
“We forecast [...] On Thursday, Société Générale analysts made a prescient call on Europe.
“It is far too early to dismiss euro area crisis as a key [market] driver,” wrote SocGen’s Vincent Chaigneau. “We fear another shockwave in the spring.” As it turns out, they may not have had to wait very long. News this weekend that the ECB, EU, and IMF bailout of the Cypriot banking system will include an instant 10 percent “tax” on bank deposits before [...] At the National People’s Congress, China announced some government restructuring plans.
The number of cabinet ministries were cut to 25, the biggest reduction in ministries since 1998, according to Societe Generale’s Wei Yao. The Ministry of Railways is being split into two parts, the administrative functions will now be merged with the Ministry of Transport, while the part that deals with construction will be changed into something like a state owned enterprise [...] Roubini: Correction in second half Dr. Doom says U.S. fiscal drag will eventually catch up with the stock market in the second half of 2013. Dollar rally just getting started: Societe Generale Faber: Rally will end ‘badly’ Is It Really 2007 Again? Don’t Lose Sight of The Macro Message: U.S. Personal Income Fell $505.5 Billion, Sales Plunge, French Unemployment Rises Again to Highest Since 1999, Fitch Downgrades Italy, China’s Economic Crisis Looming, Dollar Breaks 10-year Falling [...] CHART OF THE DAY: Investors Are Getting Really Pessimistic Despite the rally. In the wake of the Italian elections, bullish sentiment measured by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) plummeted from a high of 41.8 percent down to as low as 28.4 percent last week. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average continued its bullish march to an all-time high. This week, AAII bullish sentiment ticked up to just 31.1. This is well below [...] PAPER: Dow Jones speeding on Fed steroids Like all good things, the performance-enhancing policies must come to an end. Four years after the stock market hit bottom, it is flirting with an all-time high. On Monday, the Dow Jones industrial average enjoyed its second highest close ever and was just 37 points away from a new record — more than double its level during the dark days of March 2009. The turnabout is testament to [...]
ITALIAN STOCKS PLUNGE NEARLY 5% — Borrowing Costs Surge After Upset On Election Night FTSE MIB http://www.businessinsider.com/italian-stocks-fall-and-borrowing-costs-rise-after-italian-election-2013-2 Italy 10yr /quotes/zigman/3483462 4.76 +0.33 7.47%
http://www.marketwatch.com/# ECB bond-buying program may not be there to save Italy! Italy’s inconclusive election results have thrown financial markets into a tizzy.
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/02/26/ecb-bond-buying-program-may-not-be-there-to-save-italy/
The Spanish Market Is Collapsing Too http://www.businessinsider.com/spanish-market-falling-after-italian-elections-2013-2 Berlusconi won’t ally with Monti’s party: report http://www.marketwatch.com/story/newsviewer Gregor Peter‏@L0gg0l Big Italian bill auction today … € 8.75 bln in short-term debt Banks Are Diving [...] From Newsmax: Albert Edwards, known as an unrelenting market bear, has reversed course and is now bullish on European stocks – but mostly for investors with binoculars aimed at the far horizon. Edwards, the chief global strategist for Societe Generale who the Financial Times described as “the most dogged ‘bear’ in the City of London,” created waves with his remarks at the bank’s annual strategy conference. Edwards said European stocks are “unambiguously cheap” [...] London Gold Market Report from Ben Traynor BullionVault Wednesday 9 January 2013, 12:30 EST
“Gold Correction Awaited” in India, US Monetary Policy “Gives No Reason to Change Bullish View on Gold”
THE SPOT gold price hovered above $1660 per ounce Wednesday morning in London, slightly up on the week so far, before dropping through that level ahead of US trading.
“[Gold] continues to consolidate last week’s down move from $1694 to $1627,” says the latest technical analysis from [...] President Francois Hollande will raise France’s main sales tax rates to finance a cut in payroll charges, throwing support behind businesses for the first time in a bid to counter a record trade deficit and revive growth. By lifting the two highest value-added tax rates in 2014, Hollande is revisiting a policy he campaigned against in his successful bid to unseat predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy earlier this year. Hollande is setting out his [...] The outcome of the presidential election on November 6 is already expected to be a market-mover.
Societe Generale’s top currency strategist, Kit Juckes, hints this morning in a note to clients that the event may have just gotten a bit more important since the hurricane. Juckes writes that because the economic data that comes out next week during the election will be distorted by the effects of Hurricane Sandy, the focus will [...] On October 24, a French appeals court threw the book at former junior trader Jérôme Kerviel who, in 2008, had been hung out to dry by his employer, French mega-bank Société Générale, for having—so alleged the bank—blown €4.9 billion of its money in just about no time. He’d risked up to €50 billion with trades the Banking Commission later called “simple,” far beyond his limit of €125 million. Kerviel never [...] HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — As China decides what sort of action to take amid a deepening slowdown, a state media editorial warned that massive spending to boost the economy could be “detrimental,” given the bad debt problems now weighing on banks from Beijing’s previous stimulus. “Just four years after the last stimulus plan took effect, the Chinese economy faces the same challenges, albeit with a much more complicated external [...] From Newsmax: The U.S. economy has already slid into a recession and stock markets are poised to enter an “Ice Age” marked by little activity and movement, said Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards. Hopes that the Federal Reserve will stimulate the U.S. economy via a third round of quantitative easing have pushed stock prices up in the recent past, and not… Read full article… Albert Edwards, the consistently bearish strategist at Societe Generale, just published his latest note to clients. And his message is as dark as ever. “The resilience of the US equity market in the face of a rapidly deteriorating profits backdrop points to continued high levels of investor hope,” Edwards wrote. “The vice-like grip of the bear will soon squeeze the hope from their gasping, broken bodies.” He points to many of the [...] From Pragmatic Capitalism: As the market melts higher just about every week, investors are becoming increasingly risk averse. But as we know, stability tends to create instability. In a recent research note, Societe Generale analysts highlights the two risks to be particularly aware of as markers move higher and risks increase: Risk 1: Earnings growth expectations weaken… Read full article… From Pragmatic Capitalism: Here’s an interesting perspective from SocGen on yield-based strategies. I thought I’d pass this along for your own research: Economic slowdown in developed, emerging markets will force another round of monetary easing, pushing yields at long end across all asset classes even lower, Societe Generale strategists including Guillaume Salomon and Georgios Oikonomou write in a note to clients. Best risk-adjusted, yield-based expected returns: * Buy investment grade, high yield bonds; U.S. [...] The Chinese economy has been slowing down not only worse than market have been expecting, according to official data. The problem is, of course, the economy has probably slowed more than official data suggest. We have already made this point before, with anecdotal evidence and indirect gauges of the Chinese economy pointing to more severe slowdown than the official data suggest. And even though one may insist that the Chinese economy has not hard landed because official data suggest that [...] Greece has “one last chance” to prove its credibility to international lenders, Eurogroup chief Jean-Claude Juncker told a press conference in Athens. But with the country set to ask for yet another extension on its bailout, some economists are questioning whether it’s time to expel Greece from the euro zone – or whether, perhaps, it will choose to leave of its own accord. “I actually think that Greece ultimately makes the [...] Italian GDP contracted for the last 12 months and the country is now looking at a longer and deeper recession than was previously expected. With Spain already expected to request a sovereign bailout, investors are worried that the giant Italian economy might be the next domino to fall. So the big question on everyone’s mind: Is Italian debt sustainable? i.e. can Italy meet its debt without debt relief and avoid default. In [...] It’s Friday in the Wall Street Daily Nation. That means it’s out with our regular routine of commentary-based articles, and in with the charts. In our opinion, there’s just no better way to present the week’s most important investment and economic insights than with pictures. This week, I’m addressing the likelihood of bankruptcy for daily deal company, Groupon (Nasdaq: GRPN). (Hint: it’s increasing.) Then it’s on to proving that dividend stocks always [...] The Chinese government is openly talking about a global food crisis and has instituted rationing. On the menu deep-fried Black Swan From ZeroHedge: Bottom line – rationing is in full force, and given the continually declining state of the US corn crop, more will be needed,” said Christopher Narayanan, head of agricultural commodities research at Societe Generale. China’s State Administration of Grain did not specify the volume of corn or rice to be released [...] After the Fed failed to act today, all eyes are on the European Central Bank which will release its monetary policy decision tomorrow.
Markets will be watching to see if ECB president Mario Draghi will stand by his promise to “do whatever it takes to preserve the euro”. Some expect that Draghi could announce, that he wants sovereign bond yields to converge within 300 – 400 basis points of the benchmark yields on German bunds. In a new report, Societe [...] From Pragmatic Capitalism: Here’s a nice round-up of opinions from the analyst community on whether or not there will be QE3 this week. I’m really torn here. The Fed seems to be signaling that they’re more likely to act, but the recent data still isn’t totally consistent with more Fed action. Most importantly, core inflation is still above 2% and GDP, while weak, was better than expected last week… More via the WSJ… –J.P. MORGAN: [...] |
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