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from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: The catch-up boom in China, India, Brazil is largely over and will be followed by a drastic slowdown over the next decade, according to a grim report by America’s top forecasting body. Europe’s prognosis is even worse, with France trapped in depression with near zero growth as far as 2025 and Britain struggling to raise its speed limit to 1pc over the next three Parliaments. The US Conference Board’s global economic [...] One of the great concerns America faces is the oncoming, so-called fiscal cliff: the end-of-year expiration of gigantic government programs that threatens to hack off 3 to 5 percentage points of U.S. GDP. But believe it or not, this is not the first time we’ve ever faced a fiscal cliff. Morgan Stanley’s David Greenlaw recently wrote about this. In a recently published chart book, economist David Rosenberg warns about the fiscal cliff based on the last two experiences: Also [...] by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds Debt Serfdom In One Chart The essence of debt serfdom is debt rises to compensate for stagnant wages. I often speak of debt serfdom; here it is, captured in a single chart. The basic dynamics are all here, if you read between the lines: 1. Financialization of the U.S. and global economies diverts income to capital and those benefitting from globalization/ “financial innovation;” income for the top [...] by Tyler Durden For the last month or so, despite ongoing fund inflows, high-yield credit’s performance has been generally muted. Compared to the exuberance of the equity market it has been downright flaccid and given how ‘empirically’ cheap it is on a normalized spread basis through the cycle (and the fortress-like balance sheets we hear so much about) some would expect it to be the high-beta long of choice in the new-new normal rally-to-infinity. [...] From the ‘Great Recession’ to the ‘Great Stagnation’, published September 29, 2011 Economies can either grow, contract, or stagnate. Since 2009, most concerns have centered on the second of those outcomes, and the prospect of a fresh recession. But with two years of positive but sub-par growth and cyclical sectors already depressed, it is now becoming more common to hear worries that we are heading not for [...] by lrobb Housing prices still have a long way to fall. The housing affordabil ity index is way too high. This index measures the cost of an average home based on the ability of the average buyer in a given area to afford it. 100 means every average buyer can afford every average home. As of the end of March, that index stood at 187.8 nationally. www.realtor.org/research/research/housinginx The affordability index is [...] by TechGuy The Bernanke Put is like an inverse steroid, causing loss of muscle mass and obesity As the dollar’s value declines and commodity prices rise, it will cause unemployment to rise. Consider that people living on fixed income and stagnate wages will not be able to afford to buy as much goods and services. People still need to eat, buy energy to get to work or heat [...] America must change its ways if we are to survive as a nation. People MUST deleverage and pay down debt! While many Americans have seen income stagnate for the past 2 decades, they nonetheless, spent and consumed living the “American dream.†We have lived off one bubble after another for the past 30 years racking up piles of debt in the process. This disaster had many causes, including irrational exuberance, [...] The country as a whole, will face a drop in living standards. Not only was the country living beyond its means, but so were many American families. The bubble hid the fact that the economic state of the nation was not as good as reported. The focus on GDP has been misleading. Many groups and segments in the U.S. already face weak prospects. According to BEA males in their 30′s [...] |
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