technically
FOX News: “Durham says CIA found data alleging Trump-Russia connection not ‘technically plausible,’ was ‘user created'”
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While the economy may have technically grown for the last 10 years the numbers would have all been negative without debt increases
By Lance Roberts A Potemkin economy has lured the Fed, economists, and Wall Street analysts into a potentially dangerous assumption of economic normalcy. However, with a review of how we got here, we can better understand the costs and consequences …
Technically Speaking: The Bulls Warn The Fed Not To Taper
By Lance Roberts As the Fed started to talk about “taper,” the “bulls” sent a stern warning with a 2% “crash” they shouldn’t. After a couple of weeks of several Fed speakers discussing the need to reduce monetary accommodation, a quick sell-off brought had …
Technically Speaking: “Pet Rocks” & Other Signs Of A Rich Market
by Lance Roberts “Pet Rocks” first appeared in the mid-70s as a novelty item. Just recently, digital NFT’s of “pet rocks” sold for over $100,000. To wit: “Rarely do they create waves for investing in something as dead as a rock. Well, they do …
Technically Speaking: Slowly At First, Then All At Once
by Lance Roberts Bull markets always seem to end the same – slowly at first, then all at once. My recent discussion on why March 2020 was a “correction” and not a “bear market” sparked much debate over the somewhat arbitrary 20% …
Technically Speaking: Are “Sell Signals” Useless In “Mania” Markets?
by Lance Roberts A recent Bloomberg article made the case that since 2009 “sell signals” are useless during “mania” markets. To wit: “If you bailed because of Bollinger Bands, ran away from relative strength or took direction from the directional market indicator in 2021, you …
Technically Speaking: Picking Up Pennies In Front Of A Steamroller
by Lance Roberts “I take my hat off that you are able to continue picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. Reading your newsletter, I scratch my head in amazement at your ability to increase your exposures in a market …
Technically Speaking: Picking Up Pennies In Front Of A Steamroller
by Lance Roberts “I take my hat off that you are able to continue picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. Reading your newsletter, I scratch my head in amazement at your ability to increase your exposures in a …
Technically Speaking: If Everyone Sees It, Is It Still A Bubble?
by Lance Roberts “If everyone sees it, is it still a bubble?” That was a great question I got over the weekend. As a “contrarian” investor, it is usually when “everyone” is talking about an event; it doesn’t happen. As Mark Hulbert noted recently, “everyone” is worrying about a “bubble” in …
Technically Speaking: Forward Returns Continue To Fall
by Lance Roberts One of the interesting aspects of “bull markets” is the further they go, the lower forward returns fall. In hindsight, such an idea seems counter-intuitive, but ultimately it always comes down to valuations. As Warren Buffett once quipped: “Price is what …
#Technically Speaking: Despite Correction, Investors Are Exuberant
by Lance Roberts Despite the recent correction in the markets, leading to a hedge fund imploding, investors remain exuberant. The hopes for more stimulus, government spending, and Fed liquidity displace fears of a correction. Before we get into the technical …
#Technically Speaking: Is The End Of The Value Trade Near?
by Lance Roberts The end of the value trade may be near as investors push prices beyond economic growth expectations. Interestingly, it was just last year that I wrote: “The Rotation To Value Is Inevitable.” The critical point of that article was …
#Technically Speaking: Another Way To Look At Long-Term Bubble Cycles
by Lance Roberts Yes. We are in a stock market bubble. But what if conventional methods of examining market cycles miss a crucial point? While we often talk about parts of cycles (bull or bear), exploring the full-market cycle may provide another way to …
Technically Speaking: Do You Really Want To Be Out?
by Lance Roberts Do You Really Want To Be Out? That was a comment made several times last week with respect to the markets stellar first quarter performance. “The S&P 500 is on track for its best quarter in a …
Technically Speaking: Are We Going To New Highs?
by Lance Roberts I recently received the following email: “Are we going to hit new highs you think, or is this a setup for the real correction?” The answer is “yes” to both parts. Thank you for reading. See you next week. …
Technically Speaking: A Different Way To Look At Market Cycles
by Lance Roberts A Different Way To Look At Market Cycles In this past weekend’s newsletter we noted the issues of similarities between the current market environment and previous market peaks in the past. To wit: “It isn’t just the economy that …
Technically Speaking: Will The Next Decade Be As Good As The Last?
by Lance Roberts In this past weekend’s newsletter we stated: “This short-term oversold condition, and holding of minor support, does set the market up for a bounce next week which could get the market back above the 200-dma. The challenge, at least …
Technically Speaking: Monthly Chart Review Yields Bearish Signals
by Lance Roberts With the month of February now officially in the books, we can take a look at our long-term monthly indicators to see what they are telling us now. Is the bull market back? That’s the answer we …
Technically Speaking: Sell Today? Risk Vs. FOMO
by Lance Roberts The market is downright bullish. There is little reason to argue the point given the bullish trend since the December 24th lows. Of course, such is not surprising given the Fed’s dovish turn from tightening monetary policy to …
Technically Speaking: You Carry An Umbrella In Case It Rains
by Lance Roberts With the markets closed yesterday, it gives us a chance to review the short, intermediate, and long-term signals the markets are currently sending. Brett Arends recently wrote an excellent piece for MarketWatch with respect to investors feeling …
Technically Speaking: Too Fast, Too Furious
by Lance Roberts On December 25th, I penned “My Christmas Wish” where in I stated that is was “now or never” for the bulls to make a stand. “If we take a look back at the markets over the last 20-years, we find that …
Technically Speaking: Can The Fed’s Reversal Save The Bull?
by Lance Roberts As we discussed in this past weekend’s missive: “A WSJ article suggesting that the Fed would not only stop hiking interest rates but also cease the balance sheet reduction which has been extracting liquidity from the market. In mid-2018, the …
Technically Speaking: Bull Or Bear? Comparing Views
by Lance Roberts As the trumpets sound to signal the start of earnings season, the battle between fundamentals and “hope” begins. While earnings expectations have weakened markedly in recent months, the bulls remain steadfast in their belief the market correction is now over. As I discussed in …
Technically Speaking: Return Of The Bull Or Dead Cat Bounce
by Lance Roberts “No animals were harmed during the writing of this article.” If you listen to the media, the shocking and totally unexpected downturn last was unable to be foreseen by anyone. Thankfully, it’s now over and we can …
Technically Speaking: Has “BTFD” Become “STFR”
by Lance Roberts Kevin Wilson recently penned a piece for Seeking Alpha that made a great point about where the markets are currently. To wit: “Famous market observer Art Cashin mentioned a metaphor in October 2017 that resonated with me. He said …
Technically Speaking: Is The Bull Back, Or Is It A “Bull Trap?”
by Lance Roberts In this past weekend’s missive, “Did The Powell Put Change Anything?,” I discussed the surge in the market following Jerome Powell’s change of stance on Fed policy and the potential for a Trump to acquiesce to China in order …
Technically Speaking: Major Markets Are All Flashing Warning Signs
by Lance Roberts In this past weekend’s newsletter, I touched on the outcome of the mid-term elections and why it would likely not be as optimistic as the mainstream media was portraying it to be. To wit: “It is likely little …
Technically Speaking: Election Day & What Happens Next
by Lance Roberts In this past weekend’s newsletter, I noted Raymond James’ Kevin Giddis’ three possible outcomes for the mid-term elections: “What could a potential change do for bonds and stocks? There are many possible scenarios, so the devil is in …
Technically Speaking: Risk Of A Bigger Correction Rising
by Lance Roberts In this past weekend’s missive “Market’s Cling To Support,” I noted the early February correction process where we saw a similar short-term bottoming process where the initial bounce failed then bounced in mid-March before failing again to retest the February …