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From Peter L. Brandt: Both the technicals and fundamentals point to the potential for powerfully higher prices [for grain markets]. I provide this caveat – the technical bull case still has to be proven. Markets are about possibilities, not probabilities and not certainties. If [...] A scary head-and-shoulders pattern could be building in the S&P 500, and this negative chart formation would be created if the market stalls just above current levels. “It’s developing and it’s developing fast,” said Scott Redler of T3Live.com on Wednesday morning. Redler follows the short-term technicals of the market, and he says the head and shoulders should be proven either way in the next few trading days. “Anticipating this type of pattern has [...] Scary Pattern Could Be Forming on S&P 500 Chart A scary head-and-shoulders pattern could be building in the S&P 500, and this negative chart formation would be created if the market stalls just above current levels. “It’s developing and it’s developing fast,” said Scott Redler of T3Live.com on Wednesday morning. Redler follows the short-term technicals of the market, and he says the head and shoulders should be proven either way in the next few [...] Retirement must be on again as the Dow creeps up to close at its highest since 12/28/2007 - no more reassuring sign that we need QE stat!! The high-yield bond ETF (HYG) also pushed to new highs – amid heavy volume – as it left its credit-spread and equity risk reality in the dust (as well as its intrinsic value) but who cares – QE/ESM/OMT/WTF – it’s on like donkey kong. At [...] From Andrew Thrasher: I am the first to tell you that there are smarter technicians out there than myself. Which is why I make sure every time one of them is in the press I check in to find out their opinion on the market. Below are the thoughts of Mary Ann Bartels, the head of U.S. technical analysis for Bank of America/Merrill Lynch. From the WSJ: Just when the market was on the precipice [...] by GoldCore
Gold Has Good Long Term Support From Ichimoku Technicals Gold fell $6.70 or 0.42% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,577.20/oz. Gold traded sideways in a very tight range (1,572.20 – 1,578.27/oz) in Asia remains in this range after the open in Europe. Cross Currency Table Gold fundamentals [...] by GoldCore Today’s AM fix was USD 1,589.25, EUR 1,271.40, and GBP 1,025.65 per ounce. Silver is trading at $28.67/oz, €22.92/oz and £18.52/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,448.00/oz, palladium at $618.00/oz and rhodium at $1,200/oz. Gold 1 Month Chart – (Bloomberg) Gold climbed $5.60 or 0.35% yesterday in New York and closed at $1,600.20/oz despite stock markets giving up early gains on [...] We now have a Bullish Extreme in the USD. Over the last 5 years, Bullish extremes have been very good indicators that a top was within a hand’s reach. Chart courtesy sentimentrader.com On top of the Bullish extreme in the USD, we also have a Bearish Extreme in Gold sentiment. Bearish extremes have been good indicators that a bottom was near. Chart courtesy sentimentrader.com Silver Sentiment is also very depressed at the moment, with [...] From GoldCore: Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,661.25, EUR 1,253.02, and GBP 1,024.70 per ounce. Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,662.50, EUR 1,256.61 and GBP 1,021.44 per ounce. Silver is trading at $30.85/oz, €23.37/oz and £19.10/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,570.00/oz, palladium at $677.60/oz and rhodium at $1,350/oz. Gold rose $3.80 or 0.23% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,666.10/oz. However, there were more peculiar goings on in the gold [...] From Stock Trader’s Almanac: Although it is not a featured trade in the Commodity Trader’s Almanac 2012, shorting gold on or about February 17 and holding until mid-March is a trade setup that is included on pages 126 and 127. This short trade had a historical success rate of 62.2% since 1975, before this year’s successful trade is counted. Stock market strength on improving economic data and dimming prospects of additional monetary stimulus [...] by Sam Ro Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian is joining a bunch of other Wall Street strategists who are boosting their S&P 500 targets after realizing they were too cautious. Her new year-end target is 1,400, up from her initial target of 1,350. However, Subramanian’s fundamental assumptions are largely unchanged. Rather, her rationale for moving her target is that stocks are just higher. From her note to clients today: Our year-end target for the S&P 500 is based [...] Everyone still dazed and confused by today’s market rout will be delighted to know that Goldman is none the wiser… Or rather, Goldman knows precisely the reason why the market tumbled. From Goldman Sachs Another down day for stocks. Why? EURUSD down. Why? Gold down. Why? Momentum and technicals – and neither the FED or ECB is ramping up the printing presses any time soon. Unfortunately this is as good as the explanation gets today. Lower [...] by The Contrary Investor A View From The Corner Office(s) We are all quite aware of the fact that heightened volatility has become a short term norm in the financial markets as of late. Not surprisingly, we’re seeing the same thing in a number of recent economic surveys. The most current poster child example being the Philly Fed survey that has shown us historic month over month whipsaw movement over the last few [...] By Jeff Reeves, MarketWatch The European debt crisis has been weighing on investors’ minds all summer. And despite the recent stock market rally, the only thing that’s truly known about the euro zone sovereign debt debacle is that it has to be fixed for the market to mend. Whether it’s fixed or not is not even up for debate. There is decided lack of certainty on the issue. And whether or [...] Gold and silver have fallen after yesterday’s gains due to the very poor consumer confidence data and Federal Reserve murmurings of further monetary easing. Gold is trading at USD 1,792.50, EUR 1,245.10 , GBP 1,098.30, CHF 1,471.50 and JPY 137,624 per ounce. While silver is trading at USD 41.21, EUR 28.53 , GBP 25.31, CHF 33.33 and JPY 3,155 per ounce. Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,826.00, EUR [...] by thetechnicaltake A lot of investors state that it is impossible to time the market. I would totally disagree, and in fact, I would counter that if you don’t think you can time the market, then you shouldn’t be making investing decisions for yourself or on behalf of others. Whether you use fundamentals or technicals or some other form of analysis, every market participant wants to buy low [...] by MacroStory.com Where Is This Market Headed? “He observed that human emotions collectively had major impacts on the movement of stock prices and Markets in general, ultimately creating patterns that kept repeating.” – From a book on Jesse Livermore’s trading style. Markets at major inflection points are more a function of investor psychology and less technicals and or macro data. The struggle between [...] From Tony Pallotta of MacroStory.com How An Equity Market Prices In Recession (Updated) Recently I compared the 2007 equity topping pattern to that of the current market. The premise being today as in 2007 the US economy is quite possibly entering economic recession. Long gone are the days of equity markets being forward looking as proven in 2007 when they peaked just two months before contraction [...] From Peter Tchir Of TF Market Advisors The big question is how many people are long stocks because they played the 200 day moving average bounce? We have had at least 3 chances in the last week for investors to buy the moving average. It seems like a lot of people had stopped buying the dip during the relentless march down for stocks, but everyone seemed [...] There are significant signals in the current market that a crash or meltdown scenario could unfold sometime in the next 1-2 weeks. Crashes are rare events and nearly impossible to predict, but many elements that could combine to produce a financial market calamity appear to be present at this time. The video below reviews the current technical condition of the major world stock markets. In it [...] by ZH While the wacky desperation antics of America’s nationalized bank (that would be Citigroup for the cheap seats) enter the surreal zone, after the bank just announced a 1 for 10 reserve stock split (finally returning the stock price to Al Waleed’s cost basis, if not entrance market cap) and a 1 cent dividend (which effectively means the Fed can now exit the prop each [...] by JANIS ETFs’ growth sparks ‘flash crash’ fears. With total assets in exchange-traded funds approaching $1 trillion, the rapid growth of these products is coming under fire from critics who contend that ETF proliferation has created new risks for investors. – MW Draw the RUT out to 5-Years and see how high overbought STOCKS are today. http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/RUT Big is selling into Small, Selling on Good News, Bad News, indifferent News, as Small Investors take up [...] by ZH Something odd is going on with the market today: the NASDAQ has, for reasons unknown, halted disseminations and while we are trying to figure out what the reason for this odd market moving event is, confirmed by major sustained negative ticlks, we are looking at the one stock that is more indicative of the Nasdaq (with a 20% weighting) than any other company: Apple. [...] by LaidTrades Here are my rules for 10 resolution forex trading next year: 1)     Don’t hesitate to trade the breakouts! Chart patterns are the bread and butter of technical analysis. There are five basic must-know chart formations – triangles, head and shoulder (inverted), double bottom (tops), cup and handle, [...] by mtomato2 There’s not now, nor will there ever be, enough money to pay current expenses, much less money owed. Borrowing money, on all fronts and at all levels, puts the problem off and makes it worse. People will react violently when their free stuff supply is cut off, or even threatened. So: we can’t spend more, and we can’t cut more, and we can’t stay the same. All three options end, as [...] From Nic Lenoir of ICAP Bring on The Fed Already We expected a week of consolidation and ranging ahead of the Fed and we got just that. One could have thought equities would underperform a bit more but so far they are holding up. It is worth noting though that there is a lot of divergence on the 3-hour chart of the Nikkei, the Vix signal is [...] |
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