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Investors versus Traders: A Battle for Oil & Gas Profits Source: Zig Lambo of The Energy Report (5/21/13) The worst may be over for companies and investors who have weathered the depressed gas prices of the past few years, but that doesn’t mean it’s clear sailing from here. In this interview with The Energy Report, Robert Cooper, senior energy analyst with Haywood Securities, talks about the need for selectivity and patience for [...] 10 investing rules for the coming bond crash By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
“The best piece of advice I could give long-term investors today is don’t own bonds. And if you do own them, you probably ought to move out of them,” warns Charles Ellis, acclaimed author of the classic “Winning the Loser’s Game: Timeless Strategies for Successful Investing.” Get it? Do not own bonds. Sell. Move out now. Sound familiar? [...] by John Aziz, Azizonomics: One of the key features of the post-2008 gold boom was the notion that inflation was soon about to take off due to Bernanke’s money printing. But so far — by the most-complete inflation measure, MIT’s Billion Prices Project — it hasn’t: To me, this signifies that the deflationary forces in the economy have so far far outweighed the inflationary ones (specifically, tripling the monetary base), to such an extent [...] Two numbers even the biggest stock market bulls should be concerned about now From Kimble Charting Solutions: Earlier this month I shared that cash levels/negative net worth in brokerage accounts were nearing the lowest levels in history. (see post here) The last three times levels were this low the market fell in price. My mentor Sir John Templeton said the four most dangerous words in investing are…”It’s different this time!” The chart below reflects something “IS DIFFERENT THIS [...] From The Big Picture: 1. Invest for maximum total real return This means the return on invested dollars after taxes and after inflation. This is the only rational objective for most long-term investors. Any investment strategy that fails to recognize the insidious effect of taxes and inflation fails to recognize the true nature of the investment environment and thus is severely handicapped. It is vital that you protect purchasing power. One of the [...] WASHINGTON—Some of the most heavily traded U.S. stocks might also be among the most expensive to trade, costing investors as much as $2.5 billion a year, according to a New York trading and research firm. Stocks such as Bank of America Corp., Microsoft Corp., Cisco Systems Inc., and Ford Motor Co. are so popular with high-frequency trading firms that long-term investors often have trouble quickly buying and selling the stocks, according [...] Breakout It’s an irrefutable fact that the Law of Diminishing Returns has been applied — and has been proven — to affect everything from factories to fields and, lately, the Federal Reserve, as well. This, as the central bank mulls over whether or not more stimulus is needed to boost the faltering U.S. economy, and if so, whether it would even work. “You’re reaching the limits of what monetary policy can do [...] Remember two weeks ago, when Facebook’s stock had crashed all the way to ~$25? Yes, back then, everyone was absolutely certain that it was going to, say, $18, and they were telling everyone who would listen about that. Well, you don’t hear from those folks much anymore. Why not? Because Facebook’s stock has bounced off the bottom like Flubber and has now soared back to $31.50. Why is Facebook headed north all of a sudden? Here’s my theory: All the people [...] by Joe Weisenthal
Overall, we still feel fairly confident that the market is being driven by fundamentals (econ data, earnings or whatnot) but on a day to day basis, it’s a bit depressing what’s really driving the movements of the market. Stuff that in the past would never have been on the radar of traders or investors is now causing billions in market cap changes in the matter of minutes. Take today. The market has been [...] From Telegraph: “The rule of law has been treated with contempt,” said Marc Ostwald from Monument Securities. “This will lead to litigation for the next ten years. It has become a massive impediment for long-term investors, and people will now be very wary about Portugal.” At the start of the crisis EU leaders declared it unthinkable that any eurozone state should require debt relief, let alone default. Each pledge was breached, and [...] by Macro Man Team Macro Man apologise for the lack of service recently. Last week saw their technical pullback first get Apple’d and then FED’d. And though there were glimmers of the technical turn, it looks as though it has morphed into a ”technical pause”. Despite the fizzling out of yesterday’s Euro summit there has been little sell-off which leaves TMM thinking that there is a chance of the European ”Policy by Sloth” may work. TMM wrote [...] We did a double take when we read the following lead sentence from a just released Bloomberg report on what is about to take place in China: “China’s stocks regulator will “actively” push pension and housing funds to begin investing in capital markets, and encourage long-term investors such as insurers and corporate pension plans to buy more shares.” To paraphrase Lewis Black – we will repeat this, because it bears [...] The other shoe has finally dropped: emerging market currencies have followed emerging market equities into the global financial storm. When the Greek crisis, combined with worries about a possible U.S. recession, frightened global markets in August, emerging economy equities plunged in line with a general flight to safety. Emerging market currencies held firm, buoyed by inflows into local bonds, cash and cash derivatives. However, [...] BreakOut What a week. In the past 5 days we’ve seen awful retail sales, an uptick in unemployment claims, poverty at a record high, chaos in Europe, another rogue trader scandal and, of course, a 700 point gain for the Dow Jones Industrials. How perfectly counter-intuitive. When the God’s say “Buy”, who am I to argue? It’s as if Jessica Tandy is suddenly, inexplicably, the chauffeur rather [...] The Risks Lurking in Treasury Bonds “How’s this for an investment opportunity: a guaranteed yield of 3.2 percent, with an enormous potential downside. As risky as that sounds, millions of investors are moving money into Treasury bonds as a “safe haven.” In early September, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond sank to a new low of 3.2 percent, while the 10-year note fell to 1.9 percent. [...] By WARREN E. BUFFETT NYT OUR leaders have asked for “shared sacrifice.” But when they did the asking, they spared me. I checked with my mega-rich friends to learn what pain they were expecting. They, too, were left untouched. While the poor and middle class fight for us in Afghanistan, and while most Americans struggle to make ends meet, we mega-rich continue to get our extraordinary tax breaks. Some [...] From WSJ: When stocks collapsed in a free fall last May, the fear was that the market had been taken over by high-speed computers that had run amok. A year after the “flash crash,” which saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunge 600 points in less than 10 minutes, the stock market is a much quieter place. Companies that use fast-trading, computer-driven strategies, which were painted by some as culprits of the collapse, [...] by The Paper Empire QE is the End of America as We Know It Each time we begin to approach the end of an announced QE period, the nervous jitters of financial markets start to set in. Will Bernanke continue with QE(n+1) or won’t he? Now it’s true that professional traders live and die by their ability to front run rumor and perception, but for long term [...] |
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