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RECESSION LOOMS: GDP REVISED DOWN TO 1.3%, DURABLE GOODS COLLAPSE 13%
Our 2nd quarter GDP has just been revised downward from an already anemic 1.7% to a shockingly weak 1.3%. Moreover, orders for durable goods went — as Hot Air’s Ed Morrissey points out – ”over a cliff,” collapsing a full 13%. Morrissey also reports that this is the single largest decrease in over four years and that a subsequent increase in inventories this [...]
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
NEW YORK — The Dow Jones industrial average on Tuesday closed at its highest level in more than four years.
The fastest growth in U.S. manufacturing in 10 months gave stocks a lift Tuesday. Orders, hiring and production all rose in April.
The Dow added 66 points to 13,279, its highest close since Dec. 28, 2007.
Read more: http://www.gazette.com/articles/hits-137854-late-mark.html#ixzz1tjIYUIT6
WASHINGTON — New orders for U.S. factory goods in March recorded their biggest [...]
So much for a moderate decline in the economy. As we warned back in February when we noted that the non-seasonally unadjusted collapse in durable goods was historic, now that the aftereffect of a record warm winter is fully gone, the March durable goods data comes in and it was a complete disaster: instead of dropping modestly by 1.7% as the consensus expected, the March actual print was a massive [...]
by Joe Weisenthal, BI
The present and future of jobs in America: Healthcare.
The industry added 315K new jobs in 2011 according to the just-released December jobs report.
No other industry added that many. The closest was leisure/hospitality, which added 230K.
Here’s the full section on industry-breakdown form the BLS.
Employment in transportation and warehousing rose sharply in December (+50,000).
Almost all of the gain occurred in the couriers and messengers industry (+42,000);
seasonal hiring was particularly strong in [...]
by ZH
So much for ending the year on a positive economic tone: today’s November durable goods number, while better than expected on a headline basis including volatile transportation data coming at 3.8% on expectations of 2.2%, was a big disappointment when looking at the core economic indicators such as Durables ex-transportation and non-defense capital goods orders ex-transportation, both of which missed, 0.3 vs 0.4% in the former case, and a whopping 11st [...]
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Here’s the chicken-or-egg riddle regarding our lost economic decade: Did it result from malinvestment — the real estate bubble — or too little productive investment?
The question is key because the answer has implications for crafting a suitable economic remedy.
Those on the left who think the U.S. is suffering from a straightforward, if severe, post-bubble collapse in demand see demand-side stimulus as the logical response.
But many [...]
by ZH
Data dump from today’s two economic releases:
• US GDP (Annualised) Q/Q (Q1 T) 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.8%)
• US GDP Price Index Q/Q (Q1 T) 2.0% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.9%)
• US Personal Consumption Q/Q (Q1 T) 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 2.2%)
• US PCE Core Q/Q (Q1 T) 1.6% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 1.4%)
• US Durable Goods Orders (May) M/M 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. -3.6% Rev. [...]
by ZH
The total farce that is US diffusion index data continues, with the manufacturing ISM printing at 61.4 on expectations of 61.0, and compared to 60.8 previously. Contrary to what the respondents actually said (see below) there was not one adverse thing to be gleaned from the ISM data. In fact, the data is now so unbelievably ridiculous that the Employment Index came at 64.5, [...]
by zh
After construction spending printed at 0.4% on expectations of 0.2%, the ISM came in at 57, precisely in line with expectations. More Margin Concerns: price Price move from 69.5 to 72.5, in tune with the following comment from the survey: “Strong pressure still exists on raw material prices in almost every area. It is unclear as to whether they can get them.” Oddly enough, invntories declined by -4.9%, a [...]
by Jan Paul
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* In January of 2001, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 17.1 million Americans were employed in manufacturing. Today, a mere 11.7 million Americans work in manufacturing, which reflects a decline of 5.4 million jobs and 32% in just ten years. The last time fewer than 12 million Americans were employed in manufacturing was in 1941.
* The U.S. has lost approximately 42,400 factories since 2001.
* In 1959, [...]
Bailouts target a sector while stimulus is a set of things put in motion that create opportunities that lead to business expansion and growth in jobs.
The problem is that neither will work in our nation. We passed the point of no return long ago. It became obvious when it took a tech bubble to just create an illusion of growth. Yet, look what was really going on behind that bubble.
quote
Nondurable [...]
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