Consider: Nevada’s U-6 rate is 22.1 percent, up from just 7.6 percent in 2007. Economically troubled California has a 20.3 percent real rate, while Rhode Island is at 18.3 percent, more than double its 8.3 percent rate in 2007.
As my colleague Floyd Norris explained last month, one possible distortion that has arisen in recent years, thanks to the weakness of the economy, is that “seasonal adjustments make things look better [...]
Output slowed to stall speed over the winter. The US economy tipped into outright contraction in the second quarter, even before facing the “fiscal cliff” later this year – tightening of $600bn or 4pc of GDP unless action is taken to stop it.
Nothing serious is yet being done to head off the downward slide. If ECRI is right, the implications for the global system are ugly.
It is never easy to [...]
You quote what today is called U3. On non-adjusted basis Jan 2012 is 8.8%. U6 is 15.2% and non-adjusted 16.2%
If the 1984 formula was used today, the unemployment rate would be ~ 22.5%. How can this be? Take a look at “labor force participation rate” and “discouraged worker” and “birth-death model”.
Also, look at Baltic Dry Index http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND and Harpex Indexhttp://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex/harpexVP.do.
Then realize that Politics has corrupted everything including government statistics.
- Jack Marse
The history of America’s recessions is provided at the website of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Before this last recession, since the Great Depression recessions in America have lasted an average of 10 months, with the longest previously lasting 16 months. Yet here we are 47 months after the last recession started, and we still have no real recovery.
Instead, unemployment has been stuck at 9% or above for [...]
by Phoenix Capital Research
It is now clear the US economy has broken down in a BIG way. Indeed, no less than Ben “green shoots” Bernanke has stated that the recovery is “close to faltering.” This, coming from a cherrleader like Bernanke is essentially an admission from the powers that be that the US economy is a disaster.
Indeed, the recent manufacturing survey just posted its second consecutive [...]
In disappointing news for the White House, Wall Street and Main Street, U.S. job gains slowed to a crawl in May and the unemployment rate moved higher, the Labor Department estimated Friday.
Nonfarm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 54,000 in May. This is the smallest gain since September and a fraction of the 125,000 jobs expected by economists polled by MarketWatch.
That forecast had been cut in recent days as [...]
Jobs are heading up and down at the same time. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the morning of Feb. 4 that only 36,000 jobs were added in the month of January, but the unemployment rate dropped from 9.4 percent to 9.0 percent.
The mainstream news media will likely latch on to the dropping unemployment rate, despite job gains that were less than one-fourth of the consensus [...]
The bad news is Lekas’ believes this “huge wave of refinancings” will be preceded by severe deflationary pressures that will batter the economy and financial markets. Among his dire predictions:
– The Dow will fall to 4200 by the middle of 2011.
– The VIX will rise back into the 80-90 range.
– The “real” unemployment rate (U6) will hit 24%.
– Housing prices will fall another 20%
“It’s all [...]
Seems to me that when everyone starts to believe in something, that’s when it will all come crashing down very soon. Apparently people believe in the economic rebound. Which means that, like housing and the internet bubbles before it, the bubble of hope will grow and pop and things will get bad again.
This is all part of the same bubble in our economy.
We are in the midst of a long-term [...]