San Francisco Fed: This Time It Really Is Different – “Today employment is about 10% and investment 30% below where they were on average at similar points after other postwar recessions.”

It appears that after months of abuse for their water-is-wet economic insights, the San Francisco Fed may have stumbled on to the cold harsh reality that this post-great-recession world finds itself in. The crux of the matter, that will come as no surprise to any of our readers, is credit and “its central role to understanding the business cycle”. Oscar Jorda then concludes, in a refreshingly honest and shocking manner that “Any forecast that [...]