by Lance Robert of Streettalk Advisors
Consumers Flash Warning Signal
At the end of last year we began discussing the issues of the excessively optimistic analysis of the mainstream media and analysts which were confusing a skew in the seasonal data caused by an unseasonably warm winter and global Central Bank interventions with an organic economic recovery.(See the report “Pollyana Meets The Economy” for a primer - free membership required) The problem with maintaining an “optimistic bias”, which [...]
From Zero Hedge:
Two months ago, as we were carefully reading the latest Goldman explanation of how the firm had completely missed something Zero Hedge predicted back in January, namely the record warm winter’s impact on skewing seasonal adjustments for payroll data, we stumbled upon something we knew was about to get much, much more airplay:
Goldman’s quiet and out of place admission that what matters for a country’s central bank is [...]
Following the now long-gone LTRO induced risk ramp through March, many of the C-grade economists out there predicted that housing would bottom in March (this time for real) and it would be smooth sailing from there. Alas, the just released March Case Shiller data puts this latest speculation very much in doubt (once again), following a miss of consensus expectations in the Top 20 Composite of a 0.20% increase, printing [...]
Eric Platt, Matthew Boesler and Max Nisen
“The Global 20″ is Brought to you by Oppenheimer Funds
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-global-20-2012-5?op=1#ixzz1vnEASg3E
Each day, the data onslaught that hits markets has an outsized impact on how stocks around the world move.
While it’s easy to get caught up in this noise, investors trying to get ahead of the curve need to focus on the big trends.
We have identified these big trends in The Global 20.
The list includes the rapidly growing field [...]
WASHINGTON (AP) — One month of slower job growth might have been a blip. Two suggest a worrisome trend: The economy may be faltering again.
The United States generated just 115,000 jobs last month, well below expectations and the fewest since October. The unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent, but for the wrong reason — workers abandoned the labor force.
From December through February, employers added 252,000 jobs a month on average. [...]
Say what you will about the massaged and manipulated US unemployment rate, record warm winter stimulated monthly NFP print, composition and (lack of) quality of jobs, at least (and we use the term very loosely as this is only thanks to trillions and trillions in fiscal and monetary stimulus) the cumulative jobs trend is one of increase. In the US. Europe is a different matter. Because while even at 100,000 [...]
U.S. economic growth cooled in the first quarter as businesses cut back on investment and restocked shelves at a moderate pace, but stronger demand for automobiles softened the blow.
Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.2 percent annual rate, theCommerce Department said on Friday in its advance estimate, moderating from the fourth quarter’s 3 percent rate.
While that was below economists’ expectations for a 2.5 percent pace, a surge in consumer spending took some of the [...]
So much for a moderate decline in the economy. As we warned back in February when we noted that the non-seasonally unadjusted collapse in durable goods was historic, now that the aftereffect of a record warm winter is fully gone, the March durable goods data comes in and it was a complete disaster: instead of dropping modestly by 1.7% as the consensus expected, the March actual print was a massive [...]
By ANNIE LOWREY | New York Times
WASHINGTON — Some of the same spoilers that interrupted the recovery in 2010 and 2011 have emerged again, raising fears that the winter’s economic strength might dissipate in the spring.
In recent weeks, European bond yields have started climbing. In the United States and elsewhere, high oil prices have sapped spending power. American employers remain skittish about hiring new workers, and new claims for unemployment insurance have risen. And stocks [...]
Last week’s unexpected jump inweekly U.S. jobless claims couldn’t have been more disappointing.
Jobless claims have been one of the best leading indicators of the stock market in recent years. So it came as no surprise to us that stocks sold off to end the week.
Some experts also worry that the spike in claims confirms fears that the recent improvement in employment data had everything to do with the unseasonably warm winter, not an [...]
From The Contrary Investor
The Cliff Notes
Certainly we’ve started 2012 with a better tone to a number of economic indicators. Employment numbers have strengthened, leading economic indicator series have trended higher, and there’s even a little bit of life in housing as many former savers have now become mom and pop landlords in the effort to achieve some type of rate of return in what essentially is a Fed sponsored yield starved [...]
The market rally and return to riskier assets since the start of the year has led to optimism for a more sustained recovery – but the situation is actually more like the beginning of 2011, which was followed by near-disaster in the euro zone, according to Richard Cookson, chief investment officer at Citi Private Bank.
“The profile looks eerily similar to last year for a lot of the same reasons,” he [...]
It is funny to hear the talking heads preface virtually every bullish statement with “the US economic data is getting better.” It’s funny because it’s wrong. We have been tracking economic data based on our universe of indicators and as of today we have seen a miss rate of about 80%. And now, Deutsche Bank has joined us in keeping track of economic beats and misses, with their own universe [...]
CHICAGO (CBS) — The warm winter that is technically still in progress may spell trouble for baby squirrels.
As WBBM Newsradio’s John Cody reports, the squirrels will have to compete for food with adults who survived the winter. Usually, squirrels die off in the frigid winter months, but that didn’t happen in nearly the same numbers this year.
LISTEN: WBBM Newsradio’s John Cody reports
Urban ecologist Steve Sullivan of the Peggy Notebaert Nature Museum [...]
…I have been able to enjoy watching these fractal-manifesting megaflocks of birds. Our back deck faces out towards a yuge acreage of lightly-wooded open space (a set of high-tension lines come through perhaps 1-1/2 miles from the house, so this open space is where the birds flock/fly [it's also where a lotta deer hunting goes on {I say "goes" because even though the deer-hunting season was over weeks ago, people [...]
Mitt Romney speaks in Manchester, New Hampshire, after a projected win in the New Hampshire primary
Tune in now for CNN’s live special coverage of the New Hampshire Primary and follow real-time results on CNNPolitics.com and on Twitter at #cnnelections. Stay up to date with CNN apps for iPhone,iPad, Android or other phones.
Manchester, New Hampshire (CNN) – Mitt Romney won the New Hampshire primary, according to CNN projections, after voters turned out in expected record numbers Tuesday in [...]
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