Tech stocks are still a bright spot. Why?
By Daniel at 28 August, 2009, 1:17 pm
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Because of forecasts by Intel, which are just that; merely forecasts and poor results by Dell which though bad are “better than expected.” This is insanity. Rallies being built on a foundation of sand.
The reality is a lot worse;
Foreclosures continuing at a scary and unrelenting pace.
Fewer Catching Up on Lapsed Mortgages
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125113686930654371.html
Record credit card charge-offs!
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSN2415584020090624
Unemployment continues unabated and more people are losing their benefits before finding jobs. Almost half a million next month.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/08/06/eveningnews/main5221564.shtml
Commercial real estate is the 900 lb gorilla in the room that no one wants to talk to or about!
Municipalities and states continue to suffer and make cuts. No decent recovery for them in sight.
Consumer confidence is lower and will get lower still as the holidays approach and there is no money to spend and no credit. Especially if there are no jobs! This is the reality that the govt and media blithely ignore.
The rosy data trotted out by the govt and various media outlets is questionable at best. How long can the govt and media make use of the incompetent and always wrong analysts whose estimates are ALWAYS beaten. How long before “better than expected” doesn’t work anymore?
Oil prices are climbing. $73 a barrel today. Surprisingly this hasn’t translated to the pumps yet, but eventually it will. My personal opinion is that if oil passes $80 a barrel the impact will be hard and far reaching. Look for big losses by the USPS, UPS, Federal Express, the airlines, etc.
There WILL come a time when the govt and/or Fed will decide that the markets cannot or will not be propped up any longer. Only an elite few will know when this is going to happen. Everyone else will get flushed!
In the meantime, because the Market growth has been built on a foundation of sand, a black swan event will collapse the markets and spiral the economy down into the abyss. They have put us on the very edge and most people don’t know it or won’t believe it’s true.
Truly sad is the fact that most of the people that led us into this mess are still in their same positions, making the same salaries, and earning bonuses! There have been very few investigations, much less prosecutions. In fact most of the guilty have benefited from their crimes and/or incompetence and have every reason to continue their practices!
cynicalguy
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