Regardless of the outcome of a potential military crash between the forces of the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran in the Persian Gulf, an abrupt and the total economic crash of the United States and the world economies could be expected soon thereafter! The growing process of the current economic meltdown in the United States and in the western hemisphere will not only compound but also speed up the process even more!
THE CONTINUED ECONOMIC MELTDOWN
The tragedy is that even if a military confrontation between these two nations should not take place, the U.S. economy is already heading toward an economic meltdown and disintegration by early 2013; the U.S. dollar would collapse along with the U.S. economy. A military clash could only make a dire situation even worse and lead to a total economic crash!
The dimension and gravity of this economic crash would be so gigantic that rising from it would be practically impossible, or it would take a relatively very long time and a couple of decades of hard work before a pre-collapse economy could be restored.
An economic meltdown would affect everybody! Already it is on its way to destroy the poor people and devastate middle-class Americans, but if it is not stopped very soon, the rich and the super-rich would be powerless and could do nothing but follow suit.
To understand why an economic meltdown would destroy the super-rich, one needs to know that an economic meltdown is similar to the melting of an ice block. Starting from the corners, the ice melts all around until it reaches the middle and eventually the core. At that point, the entire ice block collapses and disappears for good! In other words, the outer parts of the ice block are the poor and the middle-class, and the center part resembles the rich people. As the ice block melts away completely, the rich and the super-rich would disappear along with it, maybe later but for sure!
There are three powerful forces simultaneously at work on the national level, and only one of which could be enough to cause the economic devastation in the United States. On the international level, again, there are three other main factors that are working in concert action against the United States. These will be described below.
THE FORCES AGAINST THE UNITED STATES ON THE NATIONAL LEVEL
The three national factors that are working against the U.S. are
1. The Internal Factors
This destructive factor, which is at work since early 1990, is chipping away the economic foundation of this country. It started with outsourcing, enhanced through the subprime drive of the financial institutions and the final inept and imprudent economic and business decisions and activities of politicians, financial institutions and big businesses. To this category belongs bailouts, stimulus packages, lack of availability of loans and mortgages, escalating and expanding outrageous and baseless fees of all kinds, abuse and violation of rules and laws, be it by the government agencies, financial institutions, and even big companies such as AT&T!
Since we all have been generally enjoying good economic times in the past few decades without any major experience of an economic hardship, it is very difficult for the average American to realize and comprehend clearly the symptoms of an economic meltdown. Even though Americans feel its growing pain and hurting squeeze, they blame it on other phenomenon. If lasting high unemployment rates continue to exist, they fault the world economy for this malaise. If there are growing foreclosures, they blame it on people’s greed and irresponsibility stemming from lack of realization of their financial limitations. And when the food prices keep rising with no stop in sight, they find the root in rising oil and energy prices and fault the oil companies and the oil-exporting nations! This all may be true and nobody disputes it. However, it does not deny the fact that all these and other events are contributing to an escalating and accelerating speed to worldwide economic collapse—the United States is unfortunately among the most vulnerable ones! The most worrisome part of it is that if the “giant” collapses, there is no easy and pain-free way of getting up—the “midgets,” the rest of the world, would suffer the same destiny one after another.
To understand what exactly an economic meltdown would look like, here are some of its symptoms that would keep growing until the total collapse becomes imminent.
• Persisting high or rising unemployment rates
• Continuing home foreclosures with no resolution
• Continuing lack of availability of credit and capital by
the banks, let alone the low-cost loans and mortgages
• Shrinking credit card limits or credit card holders
unable to reduce their debt
• Fleecing of people by the government, financial
institutions and big businesses
• Declining number of people being creditworthy
• Growing number of defaults
• Continuing rise of food prices
• Shrinking governmental services
• Growing number of people without healthcare
• Increasing numbers of crimes
• Escalating social costs
• Declining social benefits and social profits because of
outsourcing and insourcing
• Increasing fees of all kinds used by the banks and
governmental agencies as survival strategy
• Growing budget deficit without the capability of balancing it the right way unless the budgets are cut arbitrarily, compounding the problems even more
• Rising cost of energy and gasoline
• Spike of vehicle repossession
• Runaway healthcare cost
The unchecked rise of energy and gasoline cost would be the last straw that would break peoples’ backs and the government itself. As mobility and transport start to decrease and eventually come to a standstill, business and government functions are reduced, leading to the decrease of economic activities, declining revenues and income, contributing to an imminent collapse of the economy.
There is no need to describe as to how an economy would look like under these circumstances. It would be simply terrible and devastating. These are the symptoms of the economy when a state or a country is described as failed state or a failed economy. We have plenty of places all over the U.S. that belong to the categories of a failed economy. We should not make the mistake to believe that slumps are created by nature—they are simply products of failed economic policies in those areas. And if failed economic policy continues to prevail, it would not be too long before we would be seeing nice and fancy places crumbling down in front of our eyes and become modern slums like those we see in Overtown, Miami-Dade County, and elsewhere in the nation—long rows of empty but fancy high-rises, elegant shopping malls, and beautiful houses are the phenomenon of modern slums. In other words, we are in midst of total economic collapse from this end.
2. The Natural Factors
To this category belong hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, tornadoes, tsunamis, wildfires, and the like. Sadly, the U.S. is prone to these natural disasters every year. These not only destroy many lives and families everywhere all over the different states, but also cause enormous economical and environmental devastation. Even if we as a nation can deal with it, and have done thus far successfully, the fact remains that the growing numbers of these natural disasters certainly do not strengthen us economically and would exhaust our resources for other urgencies if we keep getting pounded with natural disasters.
Unfortunately, most people and politicians think that the natural catastrophes cannot be averted as we have seen during the nuclear power plant meltdown in Fukushima, Japan. This and similar incidents are simply accepted because of the power of nature and the impotency of mankind toward nature.
However, it does not need to be like that. In other words, though human beings are not able to stop or prevent natural disasters, we are, however, capable of minimizing the damages and their consequences that may occur because of a natural disaster.
For instance, if we go on erecting nuclear plants near the ocean where they would be prone to tsunamis, hurricanes, tornadoes or any other natural catastrophes, it would be just a matter of time that a disaster like in Japan could strike and happen anywhere in the world. In order to protect our energy-delivery systems from all natural or man-made disasters, we should consider following factors:
a) The energy delivery system should be environmentally safe;
b) The source that provides energy should be unlimited and available for free to all consumers;
c) The delivery system should be decentralized, which would lead to free energy;
d) The implementation of this source and/or technology should create endless jobs throughout that area;
e) We should avoid all questionable sources and technologies unless alternative sources cannot be implemented.
Considering these factors, we would never have the devastation of that magnitude that we faced in Japan. Furthermore, we should be very concerned and ask ourselves whether the nuclear plants as the source of energy is the right choice. For instance, is the Turkey Point Nuclear Plant in Miami-Dade County, Florida, safe? Should ever this plant get hit by a severe hurricane or tsunami, what would happen to Miami-Dade County and few other counties which are powered by this plant? No doubt that if that would ever happen, Miami-Dade County and part of Broward County would be heading toward
a stone age. It would be more than total economic collapse; it would bring the end of civilization for an unforeseeable time in the affected areas!
Frustrating is the lack of knowledge of our politicians! For instance, the new mayor of Miami-Dade County, Carlos Gimenez, said in a forum that no tsunami could strike Florida, and if ever there were a nuclear meltdown in Turkey Point Nuclear Plant, we could learn from it as we do from plane crashes and prevent them the next time! With politicians like him, our expectations for a better and secured future are limited. The fact is that a nuclear power plant meltdown is no way to comparable to an airplane crash; the people living in that surrounding area would never get a second chance to learn from it. Those people would be all dead or maimed and disabled to the point of becoming like vegetable. A tsunami could also happen in Florida because tsunamis are nothing other than the underwater explosion or earthquake. The penetration of gas throughout the Florida plateau because of offshore drillings for oil and gas with growing fracking elsewhere in the United States could trigger earthquakes and cause tsunamis anytime, anywhere on U.S. shores.
Another example: one of the big issues in Florida and Miami-Dade County is transportation. Whatever method of transportation we chose, whether it be public transportation, such as bus, train or other means, the very first and the most important factor should be to look at alternative energy sources such as equipping these modes of transportation on “decentralized” solar and wind energy for reasons stated above—it would be environmentally safe, and the energy would be practically free and not subject to destruction and devastation through natural disasters. Most likely, most of
our transportation system would be intact even after a severe
3. The External Factors
Although wars, currency fluctuations (devaluation), blockades, outsourcing and, to some extent, insourcing, financial manipulations, weapon sales and the like could enrich those involved groups of people and companies and contribute to their growing welfare and power, in the long term, it would weaken a nation as whole and would lead to the economic collapse of that nation if these activities continued unabated. The economic problems could compound and grow for that economy even though those groups would be making record profits! However, it would be a grave mistake and failure for these groups of people and corporations to believe that their accumulated wealth is protected in a devaluing currency and in a declining economy, especially, when the cost and social costs keep rising.
It may give rise to speculations that the reasons why multinational corporations strive toward creating one-currency system are to run away from taxes and park their monies in those countries where they are considered as tax havens and protected. Whether that could be a long-term prospect is anybody’s guess. Certainly for anyone to maintain their accumulated wealth requires two uncompromised conditions to be met: (1) the currency in which they have accumulated their wealth must remain strong, and (2) a vibrant economy is the prerequisite for a strong currency. Without meeting these, every approach would be of a short-term nature and could not last for too long and would lead to failure.
Unfortunately, at present, these three factors are chipping away
our economy at full speed and without any mercy.
FORCES WORKING AGAINST THE UNITED STATES ON THE INTERNATIONAL LEVEL
As these three factors mentioned above are in full operation inside the United States, there are three other international factors in concert action contributing to an economic collapse in the U.S. These factors are as follows:
1. Nations, predominantly China and India, strive to increase their economic growth in the world. Just think about the almost 3 billion Chinese, Indians, and others competing actively and with full power for economic gain against the 350 million Americans. Add to this mix those over one billion Muslims who want to seal the words of Allah in the United States, and you get the picture!
2. Countries with long-declared intention to become the world superpower. To this group belongs the Islamic Republic of Iran, and even though it is not officially declared, China is vying with for this too. Considering a potential military clash between the U.S. and the forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the Persian Gulf, the dire situation becomes apparent.
3. Certainly no other nation or groups have the needed abilities to become a superpower, but they would keep creating growing problems and escalating economic and social costs for the United States. These groups are the restive oil-exporting nations of the Middle East and Africa. Of course, the radical Islamic and other terrorist groups could not be discounted; they are always capable to complicate and compound the problems that the United States is facing, which would lead again to growing economic and social costs. In addition, there are multinational oil companies and corporations that seek to influence and turn U.S. policy to their favor through their lobbying activities and by financing politicians’ campaign! These all lead to escalating social costs that the American people carry.
The reason why the United States could endure so long on the international level is because of its strong position over the other nations of the world, especially in two areas: (1) strong military power and (2) the worldwide acceptance of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency. That’s why the future struggle between the nations mentioned above would be the drive to replace the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency of the world with the currency of their own. Once this power is achieved, practically the carte blanche to monetary power would be transferred to that nation. The struggle will be on until 2013, until the defining moment kicks in.
WHY THE U.S. ECONOMY COULD CRASH IN 2013
No matter what the outcome of a military clash in the Middle East between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran, there is no doubt that the U.S. economy along with its European allies will crash soon thereafter even if the West end up winning the war and controlling the Middle East and North Africa. The fact that this could happen is obvious, simply as a result of rising crude oil prices. Imagine the consequences for the U.S. economy of gasoline at $5, $6 or $7 per gallon. At $10 per gallon the collapse of the U.S. economy would be guaranteed.
Now, should the Islamic Republic of Iran become the victor of the war and become the next world superpower by making the Iranian rial the world reserve currency, oil prices may not
make too much fluctuation as opposed to the former case, but the economy will hardly ever witness another major recovery and be like the good old days.
WHAT COULD HAPPEN TO THE EXISTING U.S. DOLLARS HOARDED AS RESERVE CURRENCY?
In case the rial become the dominant reserve currency, the U.S. dollar, British pound and European euro would take another major hit and would suffer further devaluation as countries with major reserves of these currencies would try to dump them on the world market or probably buy real estate and companies in the countries of these currencies. The result would be an enhanced runaway inflation, suffering from the devaluing dollar, pound and euro because of increased price for the imported crude oil on one hand and further loss of purchasing power through the rising of the general prices on the other!
This would be bad news for a nation such as China with huge U.S. dollar reserve currency! The Chinese quest of becoming a superpower would be put to rest because (1) they would not be able to control the oil reserves of the Middle East and North Africa and (2) the accumulated U.S. dollars by them would be practically worthless in other countries with the exception of in the United States, which would be suffering an increased loss of value as the inflation keeps rising.
With all the events described here, the U.S. economy would crash dramatically, bringing the economical, political and military hegemony of the United States to an end some time during the year 2013! A more exact date cannot be mentioned because of the uncertain timetable of the events.
The Final Crash—The End of U.S. Dominance in 2013
By Farid A. Khavari
Copyright © 2011 by Janilla A. Khavari
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