The following are just a couple snap shots to show you what you don’t know:
By Daniel at 19 January, 2010, 8:34 pm
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2002 market bottom
On October 10, 2002 the US equity markets ended a two year decline. The S&P 500 bottomed at 768.63 and the DJIA bottomed at 7197.49. These were my written comments leading up to that date.
August 01, 2002
“My target for the S&P is between 740 and 700, the DJIA I expect to bottom below 7400. This low should mark the 4-year cycle low in the major U.S. equity markets.”
September 15, 2002
“There are two potential pivot dates that I am working with. These are points in time where a change in price direction is likely. Those dates are September 24 (+/- one day) and October 10 (+/- one day). It would not surprise me if one of these dates turned out to be the next major low. ”
2009 market bottom
March 06, 2009 ended the bear market decline that started on October, 2007. The following is from a commentary I wrote in mid-February, three weeks prior to the market low.*
February 18, 2009*
“In a study of major bear markets back to 1960 we find that approximately 40% of all multi month bear market rallies started during the month of March. March is second only to October as the month most favorable to the formation of market lows. The S&P 500 remains more than 20% below its 200-day average and buying volume has been rising since late January, showing that investors have started to accumulate positions. Considering these factors, the probabilities favor that a low in March will be the start of a multi-month bear market rally or possibly a new bull market.”
- mclaassen
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