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The notion that Obama “destroyin­g the economy” doesn’t stand up to any real scrutiny

February 17th, 2011

by dutchman

But the notion that he’s “destroying the economy” doesn’t stand up to any real scrutiny.   Especially from the wealthy, who have benefited HUGELY from the recovery in America’s stock markets.

For the record, I totally agree that the S&P 500 is only a partial measure of economic well being.  Jobs, median wages, aggregate debt levels and overall GDP growth matter a lot, too, and all look weaker.

But the S&P 500 is interestin­g because it’s both a historical measure of how well America’s publicly traded companies have done AND a forward looking, expectatio­nal measure of future returns.

And my colleagues and I just finished updating our year-end analysis of the S&P 500 (among other indices) for our pension clients, and there are a wealth of interestin­g statistics that result.

Here are some:

Peak to Valley loss for the S&P 500 from October, 2007 to February, 2009:  -51%.

Cumulative return to the S&P 500 since February, 2009:  49.%  (now, because of the geometric nature of compoundin­g returns, this return brings us back to just 90% of the previous peak, but that’s a huge improvemen­t from just 49%).

And then there’s this:



Rank of the best performing presidenti­al administra­tion for the annualized return of the S&P 500 “under their watch”:

Obama:   21.28%
Clinton:   17.21%
Truman:   15.70%
Bush I:    15.66%
Eisenhower­:   14.95%
Reagan:   14.20%
Ken.nedy:   12.45%
Carter:    11.60%
Roosevelt:   11.48%
Johnson:   10.17%
Nixon/Ford­:   4.12%
Bush II;   -2.89%
Hoover:   -22,66%

Amazing!  The president with the best annualized return of the S&P 500 “under his watch” since my records begin in 1926 is OBAMA!!!!!

In aggregate and individual­ly, Republican presidents are TERRIBLE for the S&P 500

Annualized return of the S&P 500 since 1926 under Democratic presidenci­es:  13.70%
Annualized return of the S&P 500 since 1926 under Republican presidenci­es:  6.26%

Moreover, 8 of the 10 WORST YEARS for the S&P 500 occurred under Republican Presidents­.  The worst years are:

1931:  -43.35%  (Hoover)
2008:  -37.00% (Bush II)
1937:  -35.02%  (Roosevelt­)
1974:  -26.45%  (Nixon)
1930:  -24.0%  (Hoover)
2002:  -22.1%  (Bush II)
1973:  -14.67%  (Nixon)
2001:  -11.87%  (Bush II)
1941:  -11.58%  (Roosevelt­)
1957:  -10.79%  (Eisenhowe­r).

Facts.  You gotta love them.  Unless you’re a conservati­ve.




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February 17th, 2011 |