wealthcycles.com / By The WealthCycles Staff / March 25, 2013
Conventional sources continue to claim that the U.S. economy is in recovery—slowly, it is said, at teams even flat, but generally slightly positive in trend. But despite reports and indicators that most audiences accept unquestioningly as proof that the economy is growing, economist Laksham Achuthan insists the United States has in fact been in a recession for several months.
Contrary to the conventional wisdom that recessions cannot be predicted but are only evident in hindsight, the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) has staked its reputation on its conviction that conventional wisdom is wrong. Based on the work of co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore, and building on the philosophy of business cycle research, ECRI has established a forecasting framework that is second to none.
The atypical approach used by ECRI and the continuing debate over whether a recession exists or is forthcoming begs the question of whether the recession debate is fueled by opinion, fact or emotion.