The Recovery Misinformation Campaign Continues / By The WealthCycles Staff / March 25, 2013

Conventional sources continue to claim that the U.S. economy is in recovery—slowly, it is said, at teams even flat, but generally slightly positive in trend. But despite reports and indicators that most audiences accept unquestioningly as proof that the economy is growing, economist Laksham Achuthan insists the United States has in fact been in a recession for several months.

Achuthan, the head of the widely respected Economic Cycle Research Institute, says even though the stock market has hit a series of record highs this week, he’s not budging from his call that the U.S. economy has been in a recession since the middle of last year.
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Few share his opinion though—thus his self-described status as a “skunk at the garden party.”

Contrary to the conventional wisdom that recessions cannot be predicted but are only evident in hindsight, the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) has staked its reputation on its conviction that conventional wisdom is wrong. Based on the work of co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore, and building on the philosophy of business cycle research, ECRI has established a forecasting framework that is second to none.

The discipline and objectivity of our approach allows us to step away from the crowd at the right time, and presciently predict turning points, while most forecasters—and their clients—sit and wait.

The atypical approach used by ECRI and the continuing debate over whether a recession exists or is forthcoming begs the question of whether the recession debate is fueled by opinion, fact or emotion.



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