Search On This Site

Custom Search


It only takes a few moments to share an article, but the person on the other end who reads it might have his life changed forever
Subscribe via RSS



Contact Information: 
Submit: articles [ at ] investmentwatchblog [dot] com 
Advertising: ads [ at ] investmentwatchblog [dot] com 
General: admin [ at ] investmentwatchblog [dot] com

This Week’s Economic Data Was Okay, But Two Big Leading Indicators Have Turned Negative


May monthly data reported this past week included the Index of Leading Indicators, up 0.1 and showing no imminent recession, the Empire State and Philly manufacturing indexes, both of which improved, consumer prices up slightly, housing starts and existing home sales up, and permits down. The 6 month trend in housing is up, but at a more muted pace than over the previous year.

Prof. Geoffrey Moore identified 4 long leading indicators, which take over a year to feed into the general economy: bond interest rates, real M2 money supply, housing permits, and corporate profits after taxes. Three of the four (using purchase mortgage applications as a reasonable proxy for permits) are updated in our look at the high frequency weekly indicators, so let’s start with them:

Interest rates and credit spreads

  •  5.11% BAA corporate bonds up +0.12%

 

  • 2.20% 10 year treasury bonds up +0.08%

 

  • 2.91% credit spread between corporates and treasuries up +0.04%

Read more: http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2013/06/weekly-indicators-2-long-leading.html#ixzz2X2sONIpV

 

38 Total Views 1 Views Today
Did you already share this? No? Share it now: