Trader alert: The market could now be entering a “euphoria stage”. While this certainly felt good at the time, it was the beginning of the end as the housing and credit bubbles began to implode.
From Gold Scents:
I think we are on the verge of entering the euphoria stage of this cyclical bull market.
The euphoria phase is where the rate of change starts to accelerate as traders become convinced that the economy is booming, and will continue to boom into the foreseeable future (the last bull market), or in this case that QE3 is a magic elixir with no unintended consequences.
During this final phase, the character of the intermediate cycles should change… and instead of a modest move above the prior intermediate top, we will see a strong acceleration and a significant and sustained breakout above the September high of 1,475. All of the traders that have convinced themselves that QE is having less and less effect are about to be caught off guard as we move into the euphoria phase of the bull market.
You can see in the chart below in 2006/07, the intermediate cycle accelerated rapidly past the prior intermediate top at 1,326 in a classic runaway move. While this certainly felt good at the time, it was the beginning of the end as the housing and credit bubbles began to implode.
New bond king Gundlach: Major investment “KABOOM” coming
It’s mid-October, and Jeffrey Gundlach is giving a stump speech to a luncheon crowd of about 200 financial advisers and investors at Los Angeles’s City Club. The renowned money manager’s theme: the financial catastrophe on the horizon.
The co-founder and chief executive officer of DoubleLine Capital LP explains that the first phase of the coming debacle consisted of a 27-year buildup of corporate, personal, and sovereign debt. That lasted until 2008, when unfettered lending finally toppled banks and pushed the global economy into a recession, spurring governments and central banks to spend trillions of dollars to stimulate growth, Bloomberg Markets reports in its January issue.
In the ominous third phase, he predicts another crisis: Deeply indebted countries and companies, which Gundlach doesn’t name, will default sometime after 2013. Central banks may forestall these defaults by pumping even more money into the economy — at the risk of higher inflation in coming years.
Gundlach, 53, doesn’t know when the third phase will get here, but he tells his audience they need to gradually get ready for it.
“I don’t believe you’re going to get some sort of an early warning,” Gundlach, who’s also chief investment officer at Los Angeles-based DoubleLine, tells his listeners. “You should be moving now…
He says the amount of money investors can make in phase three will dwarf what they can earn now.
“I’m waiting for something to go kaboom,” Gundlach says in his office a week before the L.A. speech. “If phase three takes two years, it’s worth waiting for. The markets don’t have lots of opportunity now.”
Gundlach has a history of making brash pronouncements. At a conference in New York in April, he told a Bloomberg News reporter that he would abolish the 99-year-old Federal Reserve, a position espoused by failed Republican presidential aspirant Ron Paul.
“That’s a very extreme view,” says Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. “Given how the Fed has evolved since the early 1900s, to say we’re going to change all that and start over is absurd.”
Investor Sentiment: There Are No Bears
From Zero Hedge:
… When looking at the sentiment data, we note three things.
One, the bearish extremes in investor sentiment are not too extreme. The recent bearish extreme in the “dumb money” indicator (i.e., bull signal) has lasted all but one week. The last signal on June 8, 2012 lasted all but one week as well. Our models (over 20 years of data) usually see two or more weeks of bearishness amongst investors before a bottom is forged.
Two, there is no consensus among the various sentiment data. For example, company insiders (i.e., the “smart money”) are typically buying when the “dumb money” is selling. But this past week, we find company insiders actually selling to a degree last seen when the Fed announced QE3.
Three, there are no bears. When looking at the leveraged Rydex investors (personal data), we find that they are becoming more bearish, but they haven’t acted on that bearishness. They essentially have moved to the safety of the sidelines. Without committed and invested bears, there will be no short covering… and without short covering, there will be little fuel to power any rally. So the problem with this market is that it can’t seem to sell off enough to produce a sustainable rally. There are not enough bears or bulls. If the market went lower, we would see more of each.
As expected, the market has found a floor. Holiday trading, hope and the expectation for a fiscal cliff resolution, and fading the “dumb money” are some of the reasons. But the rubber band isn’t stretched too far. However far the rally goes, it will likely be…
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