Economist John Williams says the latest round of “open-ended” QE has set the table for a global “dollar sell-off” and “hyperinflation” no later than 2014. Williams says, “There’s no way the consumer can fuel the economic recovery, and there is no way we’re going to see one in the near future. The Treasury is going to have funding problems, and that means the deficit gets a lot worse.”
With the recent talk that the Fed might increase the money printing Williams charges, “The Fed’s primary concern is to keep the banking system afloat, and they’re not doing so well with that.” Williams contends there is 12 trillion in liquid dollar assets held outside the U.S. and states it is only a matter of time before all the Fed money printing will “trigger a sell-off . . . and that will provide the early start of the hyperinflation.” You think the U.S. is better off today than it was in the last meltdown? Not according to Williams, he thinks, “. . . things have gotten a lot worse.” Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with John Williams of Shadowstats.com.
US DOLLAR COLLAPSE IN PROGRESS
The Dollar Index fell by the most since the first quarter of 2011 after the European Central Bank pledged to protect the euro from unraveling and the Federal Reservecommitted to reduce unemployment via open-ended debt buying, which may debase the U.S. currency.
Since July 26, when ECB President Mario Draghi said he would do “whatever it takes” to save the euro, the 17-nation currency rose versus 15 of its 16 most-traded counterparts tracked by Bloomberg. Amid the Fed’s expansion of monetary stimulus, the Dollar Index lost 2.1 percent in the third quarter. The Bank of Japan, which followed the Fed and the ECB in expanding its balance sheet by 10 trillion yen ($130 billion), is scheduled to announce its next policy decision on Oct. 5.
The extreme pressure of the U.S. $16,000,000,000,000 debt
….load is now finally wreaking havoc on the currency that is no longer backed by Gold!!
The following lecture Explains Clearly why the U.S. Debt backed Dollar is in serious trouble!
PANICS DO NOT DESTROY CAPITAL: THEY MERELY REVEAL THE EXTENT TO WHICH IT HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY DESTROYED BY ITS BETRAYAL INTO HOPELESSLY UNPRODUCTIVE WORKS……(John Stewart Economist 1806-1873)
The legendary Jim Sinclair sent an email alert to subscribers tonight advising readers thatQE? cannot stop even temporarily or the dollar would collapse due to the economic implications.
Sinclair states the current bullion bank generated corrections in the metals are nearing completions, and guarantees that gold will trade above $3,500/oz.
From Jim Sinclair:
1. The entire reason that I launched into the explanation of spread trading was to demonstrate how it is used to manipulate markets.
2. Recognizing the multiple blocks at $1775 and $1800, it was obvious a line was being drawn in the sand.
3. In that market situation a reaction was reasonable to anticipate.
4. I wanted to drive home to you the fact that all the market drama as seen today is manufactured by the gold banks.
5. QE cannot stop or the economic implosion would blow up your computer screen.
6. If some nitwit Chairman tried to stop QE you would have a few days of dollar strength followed by a collapse of the currency based on the economic implications.
7. Then gold’s highest possible estimates would come into focus as the downward spiral already in place in the Western world did in fact present itself as a black hole.
8. The event horizon to a total collapse is QE to infinity, as was anticipated.
9. QE’s focus is to prevent financial balance sheet collapse both privately and publicly internationally.
10. Jobs are only created the way Roosevelt did it, and that was by Federal invention of jobs if required when conditions are as they are now. Remember the conservation corp and all the make-work jobs that were invented in the 30s?
11. The thought that any candidate can change the present situation is intellectual garbage of those who do not even know there is economic law. Once violated, those laws brings consequences.
12. This, like all reactions, will be completed when it is completed, and that will be soon.
13. You could see the spread cartel working all day.
14. Do not be stampeded into turning over your gold investments to the greedy shorts now open mouthed and waiting like a wolf for its prey.
15. Simply ignore this, taking my hand in the knowledge that this is no different from the many similar plays made by exactly the same people all the way from $248 to the $1900s.
16. Email me if you are confused or simply need my help.
17. I will personally return your communications, answering your questions.
18. Gold is going to and through $3500 and those that find this humorous are the same people that laughed and scorned me at $529.40 when I told you that the very long term breakout had occurred, the strongest magnet among all was $1650 and gold would trade there and above.
Somehow we missed this over the summer.
In an excellent economic lecture series presented by the BBC, economic historian (& author of the recent Newsweek piece Hit the Road Barack) Niall Ferguson states that the total US unfunded liabilities is a mind-blowing $238 TRILLION– over 16 times the total US debt claimed by the Treasury Department of $16 trillion!!
Can you say QE to INFINITY….AND BEYOND!!! ? There is simply no other viable solution.Ferguson’s full lectures can be downloaded here:
The rapidly rising quantity of these bonds certainly implies a growing charge on those in employment, now and in the future, since – even if the current low rates of interest enjoyed by the biggest sovereign borrowers persist – the amount of money needed to service the debt must inexorably rise.
But the official debts in the form of bonds do not include the often far larger unfunded liabilities of welfare schemes like – to give the biggest American schemes – Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.
The most recent estimate for the difference between the net present value of federal government liabilities and the net present value of future federal revenues is $200 trillion, nearly thirteen times the debt as stated by the U.S. Treasury.
Notice that these figures, too, are incomplete, since they omit the unfunded liabilities of state and local governments, which are estimated to be around $38 trillion.
This VIDEO explains WHY. Every person in AMERICA should watch this video! Over 3.1 million VIEWS!
Risk of Asset Bubbles Rise
Alongside the appreciation in Asian currencies has been a rapid rise in the region’s equity markets, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index up around eight percent since mid-August.
The risk of asset bubbles in equity and real estate markets is growing, said experts, particularly in Hong Kong.
“The U.S. dollar glut is a bane, it will distort valuations, push up house prices and rents even further, and once again raise the specter of inflation when we least need it,” Uwe Papart, head of research at Reorient Group, wrote in a note on Monday.
Goldman – “We expect the QE program to expand from $40bn per month now to $85bn per month from January,”
What happens next:
- Imminently, the Fed’s Open Markets Operations desk will commence buying $40 billion in MBS per month, or about $10 billion each week. Concurrently, the Fed which is continuing Operation Twist, will still purchase $45 billion in “longer-term” Treasurys, sterilized by the $45 billion or so in 1-3 years Bonds it will sell until the end of the year at which point it runs out of short-term paper to sell.
End result: every month through the end of 2012, the Fed’s balance sheet expands by $40 billion in MBS.
- Beginning January 1, 2013 the Fed will continue monetizing $40 billion in MBS each month, and will continue Operation Twist, however it will adjust the program so that it continues to increase its long-term holdings at $85 billion per month, without sterilization as it will no longer have short-term bonds to sell. It will also need to extend its ZIRP language “through the end of 2016” so all bonds 1-3 years are essentially risk free, as they are now, in effect eliminating the need to sell them.
End result: every month in 2013 the Fed will increase its balance sheet by $85 billion, consisting of $40 billion in MBS, and $45 billion in 10-30 year Treasurys, or the natural monthly supply of longer-dated issuance. The Fed will therefore monetize roughly half of the US budget deficit in 2013.
Putting it all together, the Fed’s balance sheet will increase from just over $2.8 trillion currently, to $4 trillion on December 25, 2013. A total increase of $1.17 trillion.
This is what the Fed’s balance sheet will looks like:
The days of the U.S. dollar being the de facto reserve currency of the world are numbered
#1 China And Russia
China and Russia have decided to start using their own currencies when trading with each other. The following is from a China Daily article about this important agreement….
China and Russia have decided to renounce the US dollar and resort to using their own currencies for bilateral trade, Premier Wen Jiabao and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin announced late on Tuesday.
Chinese experts said the move reflected closer relations between Beijing and Moscow and is not aimed at challenging the dollar, but to protect their domestic economies.
“About trade settlement, we have decided to use our own currencies,” Putin said at a joint news conference with Wen in St. Petersburg.
The two countries were accustomed to using other currencies, especially the dollar, for bilateral trade. Since the financial crisis, however, high-ranking officials on both sides began to explore other possibilities.
#2 China And Brazil
Did you know that Brazil conducts more trade with China than with anyone else?
The largest economy in South America has just agreed to a huge currency swap deal with the largest economy in Asia. The following is from a recent BBC article….
China and Brazil have agreed a currency swap deal in a bid to safeguard against any global financial crisis and strengthen their trade ties.
It will allow their respective central banks to exchange local currencies worth up to 60bn reais or 190bn yuan ($30bn; £19bn).
The amount can be used to shore up reserves in times of crisis or put towards boosting bilateral trade.
#3 China And Australia
Did you know that Australia conducts more trade with China than with anyone else?
Australia also recently agreed to a huge currency swap deal with China. The following is from a recent Financial Express article….
The central banks of China and Australia signed a A$30 billion ($31.2 billion) currency-swap agreement to ensure the availability of capital between the trading partners, the Reserve Bank of Australia said.
“The main purposes of the swap agreement are to support trade and investment between Australia and China, particularly in local-currency terms, and to strengthen bilateral financial cooperation,” the RBA said in a statement on its website. “The agreement reflects the increasing opportunities available to settle trade between the two countries in Chinese renminbi and to make RMB-denominated investments.”
China has been expanding currency-swap accords as it promotes the international use of the yuan, and the accord with Australia follows similar deals with nations including South Korea, Turkey and Kazakhstan. China is Australia’s biggest trading partner and accounts for about a quarter of the nation’s merchandise sales abroad.
#4 China And Japan
The second and third largest economies on the entire planet have decided that they should start moving toward using their own currencies when trading with each other. This agreement was incredibly important but it was almost totally ignored by the U.S. media.
According to Bloomberg, it is anticipated that this agreement will strengthen ties between these two Asian giants….
Japan and China will promote direct trading of the yen and yuan without using dollars and will encourage the development of a market for companies involved in the exchanges, the Japanese government said.
Japan will also apply to buy Chinese bonds next year, allowing the investment of renminbi that leaves China during the transactions, the Japanese government said in a statement after a meeting between Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in Beijing yesterday. Encouraging direct yen- yuan settlement should reduce currency risks and trading costs, the Japanese and Chinese governments said.
China is Japan’s biggest trading partner with 26.5 trillion yen ($340 billion) in two-way transactions last year, from 9.2 trillion yen a decade earlier.
#5 India And Japan
It is not just China making these kinds of currency agreements. According to Reuters, India and Japan have also agreed to a very large currency swap deal….
India and Japan have agreed to a $15 billion currency swap line, Japan’s Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said on Wednesday, in a positive move for the troubled Indian rupee, Asia’s worst-performing currency this year.
#6 “Junk For Oil”: How India And China Are Buying Oil From Iran
Iran is still selling lots of oil. They just aren’t exchanging that oil for U.S. dollars as much these days.
So how is Iran selling their oil without using dollars?
A Bloomberg article recently detailed what countries such as China and India are exchanging for Iranian oil….
Iran and its leading oil buyers, China and India, are finding ways to skirt U.S. and European Union financial sanctions on the Islamic republic by agreeing to trade oil for local currencies and goods including wheat, soybean meal and consumer products.
India, the second-biggest importer of Iran’s oil, has set up a rupee account at a state-owned bank to settle as much as much as 45 percent of its bill, according to Indian officials. China, Iran’s largest oil customer, already settles some of its oil debts through barter, Mahmoud Bahmani, Iran’s central bank governor, said Feb. 28. Iran also has sought to trade oil for wheat from Pakistan and Russia, according to media reports from the two countries.
#7 Iran And Russia
According to Bloomberg, Iran and Russia have decided to discard the U.S. dollar and use their own currencies when trading with each other….
Iran and Russia replaced the U.S. dollar with their national currencies in bilateral trade, Iran’s state-run Fars news agency reported, citing Seyed Reza Sajjadi, the Iranian ambassador in Moscow.
The proposal to switch to the ruble and the rial was raised by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev at a meeting with his Iranian counterpart, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in Astana, Kazakhstan, of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the ambassador said.
#8 China And Chile
China and Chile recently signed a new agreement that will dramatically expand trade between the two nations and that is also likely to lead to significant currency swaps between the two countries….
The following is from a recent report that described this new agreement between China and Chile….
Wen called on the two nations to expand trade in goods, promote trade in services and mutual investment, and double bilateral trade in three years.
The Chinese leader also said the two countries should enhance cooperation in mining, expand farm product trade, and promote cooperation in farm product production and processing and agricultural technology.
China would like to be actively engaged in Chile’s infrastructure construction and work with Chile to promote the development of transportation networks in Latin America, said Wen.
Meanwhile, Wen suggested that the two sides launch currency swaps and expand settlement in China’s renminbi.
#9 China And The United Arab Emirates
According to CNN, China and the United Arab Emirates recently agreed to a very large currency swap deal….
In January, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao visited the United Arab Emirates and signed a $5.5 billion currency swap deal to boost trade and investments between the two countries.
#10 China And Africa
Did you know that China is now Africa’s biggest trading partner?
For many years the U.S. dollar was dominant in Africa, but now that is changing. A report from Africa’s largest bank, Standard Bank, says the following….
“We expect at least $100 billion (about R768 billion) in Sino-African trade – more than the total bilateral trade between China and Africa in 2010 – to be settled in the renminbi by 2015.”
#11 Brazil, Russia, India, China And South Africa
The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) continue to become a larger factor in the global economy.
A recent agreement between those nations sets the stage for them to increasingly use their own national currencies when trading with each other rather than the U.S. dollar. The following is from a news source in India….
The five major emerging economies of BRICS — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — are set to inject greater economic momentum into their grouping by signing two pacts for promoting intra-BRICS trade at the fourth summit of their leaders here Thursday.
The two agreements that will enable credit facility in local currency for businesses of BRICS countries will be signed in the presence of the leaders of the five countries, Sudhir Vyas, secretary (economic relations) in the external affairs ministry, told reporters here.
The pacts are expected to scale up intra-BRICS trade which has been growing at the rate of 28 percent over the last few years, but at $230 billion, remains much below the potential of the five economic powerhouses.
The following clip from the 1981 movie “Rollover” a movie made 30 years ago about a US Dollar collapse!
Here is it in its entirety. Believe me it will send a shiver down your spine….