We can easily hit 10.5% next month, I tell you why:
By Daniel at 6 November, 2009, 2:03 pm
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Year month Popul. Work force Working % Unemployed % Out of LF
2009. may 235452 155081 140570 59,70% 14511 9,36% 80371
2009. jun 235655 154926 140196 59,49% 14730 9,51% 80729
2009. july 235870 154504 140041 59,37% 14463 9,36% 81366
2009. aug 236087 154577 139649 59,15% 14928 9,66% 81510
2009. sep 236322 154006 138864 58,76% 15142 9,83% 82316
2009. oct 236550 153975 138275 58,45% 15700 10,20% 82575
— and I expect —
2009. nov 236800 154000 137900 58,23% 16100 10,45% 82800
The population grew about 200-250k every month in the past years. (This month I figured it out exactly, check my earlier post from yesterday on commant page 3)
So it’s quite stable. Work force is around 154M for a while, but it’s decreasing recently, which fuels unemployment ratio, since the divisor is smaller.
Employed are shrinking about 400k / month.
Unemployed/out depends on how many go retired etc, but it grew enormus recently (400k/month instead of the historical average 80k/month)
So even if “not in labor force” will grow 200k next month, we can easily hit 10.5%, I was way too optimistic in the above forecast, since “not in labor force” might decrease as well (as it did it in March-May when unemployment jumped 0.9%). And it’s still far from the end …
source: http://www.bls.gov/web/cpseea1.pdf
- rokakoma
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