MOST international economic agencies are pretty useless sinecures for people more interested in climbing the greasy pole of the global establishment than in thinking for themselves. One of the few exceptions is the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the central banks’ very own bank and a superb organisation which has spent the past few years rejecting groupthink.
Thanks in part to its then chief economist William R White, it was the only global body of its kind to warn that loose monetary policy and a fixation with targeting consumer price indices had allowed a massive, near-lethal bubble to develop in asset markets. Meanwhile, the likes of the IMF and the OECD thought that all was well, probably because their army of analysts used models that were simply not good enough.
The truth, of course, is that White wasn’t alone. More economists predicted the bubble and bust than is usually understood – in the UK, some of these include the monetarist-leaning David B Smith (then at Williams de Broe), Tim Congdon (now at International Monetary Research), Peter Warburton (Economic Perspectives), John Greenwood (Invesco), Gordon Pepper (Lombard Street Research) and Andrew Lilico. It is at best a myth and at worst a convenient lie to claim that nobody saw the crisis coming. All of those mentioned are members of the Institute of Economic Affairs’ shadow monetary policy committee; I used to talk to all of them in the run-up to the crisis, in Smith’s case every single week, and remember how worried they were.
V – The Guerrilla Economist Updates…Alert: Tangled Webs :We are moving from the summer of sovereign solvency crisis to the fall/winter of global collapse/war
I can confirm to you today that the long held plan to inflate bubbles, create an illusion of recovery and then pull the rug/ support out is now in it’s last phase. I have dissected the annual report and just as I thought the Central Bank of Central Banks has given the green light to pull the stimulus. This of course leaves the underling big 4 (FED,BOE,ECB & BOJ) in a predicament. How to pull or demolish a structure without you yourselves being caught in it. Simple, make sure you and your buddies are free and clear of the vicinity, make sure that all the wealth has been pilfered by Ponzi and you simply pull it!
Top Economic Advisers Forecast War and Unrest
Kyle Bass, Martin Armstrong, Larry Edelson, Charles Nenner, James Dines, Nouriel Roubini, Jim Rogers, Marc Faber and Jim Rickards Warn of War
We’re already at war in numerous countries all over the world.
But top economic advisers warn that economic factors could lead to a new world war.
Kyle Bass writes:
Trillions of dollars of debts will be restructured and millions of financially prudent savers will lose large percentages of their real purchasing power at exactly the wrong time in their lives. Again, the world will not end, but the social fabric of the profligate nations will be stretched and in some cases torn. Sadly, looking back through economic history, all too often war is the manifestation of simple economic entropy played to its logical conclusion. We believe that war is an inevitable consequence of the current global economic situation.
Martin Armstrong writes this week:
We will be updating the Cycle of War. Obviously, it is time once again. Especially since that model also hit to the day 3 times in a row.
Similarly, Larry Edelson wrote an email to subscribers entitled “What the “Cycles of War” are saying for 2013?, which states:
Since the 1980s, I’ve been studying the so-called “cycles of war” — the natural rhythms that predispose societies to descend into chaos, into hatred, into civil and even international war.
I’m certainly not the first person to examine these very distinctive patterns in history. There have been many before me, notably, Raymond Wheeler, who published the most authoritative chronicle of war ever, covering a period of 2,600 years of data.
However, there are very few people who are willing to even discuss the issue right now. And based on what I’m seeing, the implications could be absolutely huge in 2013.
Many Warn of Unrest
Numerous economic organizations and economists also warn of crash-induced unrest, including:
- The head of the World Trade Organization
- The head of the International Monetary Fund
- The head of the World Bank
- Leading economic historian Niall Ferguson
- Leading economist John Williams