‘Blame The Weather’ As UK Heads For Unprecedented Triple-Dip-Recession
How many ‘dips’ before a recession cycle becomes a depression structure? That is likely the question on Carney’s mind as he enters his role as top man at the BoE shortly. As The Guardian reports, an unprecedented third slump in four years looms for the UK as shoppers stay at home and vital transport links grind to a halt amid paralyzing weather. As snow blankets much of the nation, it would appear the next round of central bank easing will be to print ‘sunshine’. A series of economic releases – including weak trade data, downbeat business surveys and dreary retail sales – have fueled concerns that official figures out this week will show that output fell in the final quarter of last year. Now analysts fear a cold snap in January could lead to another quarter of contraction in Q1. The snow, bitter cold and harsh easterly winds continue to cause widespread disruption to travel by air, road and rail. “Clearly, the longer that the snow and ice lasts, the greater will be the negative impact on the economy,” IHS’ Archer added, though we are sure we will hear of the ’broken icicle fallacy’ soon enough.
Deflation’s not over. It’s barely begun.
(Reuters) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Peter Praet warned Europe’s economy was still shrinking, making it necessary for euro zonestates to continue their reforms, and he dismissed fears low interest rates could spur higher inflation inGermany.
Greek eurozone exit still likely despite European leaders resolve, warn economists
Greece is still likely to leave the eurozone, according to leading economists, but it could take several years as the European leaders resolve to save the debt-laden country has been underestimated.
Mr Roubini warned that the debate over a Greek exit easily could reignite by the end of the year after Germany’s election, if Greece’s coalition government wobbles or if Spain and Italy appear less at risk of contagion,
Angela Merkel Suffers Major Setback Months Before Federal Vote
Her Christian Democrats (CDU), led by local star David McAllister, had convinced themselves over the past week that they were on the verge of a come-from-behind victory to keep control of Lower Saxony, a vast agricultural and industrial region that resembles a U.S.-style swing state.
Spain’s Ruling Party Hit by Major Corruption Scandal
Spain’s governing Popular Party was drawn deeper into a web of corruption scandals this past week, after the Swiss authorities informed the Spanish judiciary that the party’s former treasurer had amassed as much as 22 million euros, or $29 million, in Swiss bank accounts.
The treasurer, Luis Bárcenas, resigned from his job in 2009, after being indicted in the early stages of an investigation, which is still ongoing, into a scheme of kickbacks and illegal payments allegedly involving other conservative party politicians.
Japan-China-US War Imminent
BEIJING: Amid rising tensions with Japan over disputed islands, Chinese army in a bid to scale up battle readiness has ordered its armed helicopters to shift focus from logistic missions and gear up for combat operations.
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) planned to change the training strategy of its army aviation unit as more and more armed helicopters joined the service, PLA Daily which is the official newspaper of the military quoted an army aviation unit as saying.
The focus of army aviation unit will be shifted from logistics missions to combat ones, from building the capacity for non-war military actions to core military actions, state-run Xinhua news agency quoted the daily as saying.
CHINA POISED TO PLAY DEBT CARD – FOR U.S. LAND
NEW YORK – Could real estate on American soil owned by China be set up as “development zones” in which the communist nation could establish Chinese-owned businesses and bring in its citizens to the U.S. to work?
That’s part of an evolving proposal Beijing has been developing quietly since 2009 to convert more than $1 trillion of U.S debt it owns into equity.
Under the plan, China would own U.S. businesses, U.S. infrastructure and U.S. high-value land, all with a U.S. government guarantee against loss.
Read more at
China: US stand on islands a ‘betrayal’
Veiled US warnings to Beijing not to challenge Japan’s control of disputed islands encouraged Tokyo’s “dangerously right-leaning” government and “betrayed” Washington’s vow of neutrality, Chinese state media said Saturday.
The comments came as Japan’s coastguard said three Chinese government ships had entered Japanese territorial waters around the islands, known as the Senkaku in Japanese and the Diaoyu in Chinese.
China and Japan square up – The drums of war
WATCH Chinese television these days and you might conclude that the outbreak of war with Japan over what it calls the Senkaku and China the Diaoyu islands is only a matter of time. You might well be right.
China says US has historical responsibility in island dispute with Japan
Debt to GDP Ratios All Over The Planet Continue To Skyrocket
Why are so many politicians around the world declaring that the debt crisis is “over” when debt to GDP ratios all over the planet continue to skyrocket? The global economy has never seen anything like the sovereign debt bubble that we are experiencing today. The United States, Japan, and nearly every major nation in Europe are absolutely drowning in debt. We have heard a lot about “austerity” over in Europe in recent years, but debt to GDP ratios continue to rise in Greece, Spain, Italy, Ireland and Portugal. In general, most economists consider a debt to GDP ratio of 100% to be a “danger level”, and most of the economies of the western world have either already surpassed that level or are rapidly approaching it. Of course the biggest debt offender of all in many ways is the United States. The U.S. debt to GDP ratio has risen from 66.6 percent to 103 percent since 2007, and the U.S. government accumulated more new debt during Barack Obama’s first term than it did under the first 42 U.S. presidents combined. This insane sovereign debt bubble will continue to expand until a day of reckoning arrives and the system implodes. Nobody knows exactly when that moment will be reached, but without a doubt it is coming.
But if you listen to the mainstream media in the United States, you would be tempted to think that this giant bubble of debt is not much of a concern at all. For example, in a recent article in the Washington Post entitled “The case for deficit optimism“, Ezra Klein wrote the following…
“Here’s a secret: For all the sound and fury, Washington’s actually making real progress on debt.”
How many times have we heard that before?
Many worst-case scenarios — bubbles, wars, starvation, pandemics
…A decade ago the Pentagon warned that “by 2020 warfare would define human life on the planet.” InvestmentNews is warning that commodity-price inflation raises “bubble fears,” increasing war threats. More recently, a USA Today editorial warned that a “silent tsunami of hunger washes over poor nations” triggering food riots and political unrest worldwide. “Prices are spiraling out of control in fuel, energy and food … Global grain prices were up 250% since 2002, starvation threatens millions living on as little as a dollar a day.” Euphemisms aside, war is the dominant gene in America’s DNA, defining our character.
Whether we like it or not, America is edging toward bigger, costlier global wars. We learned nothing from two exhausting wars the past twelve years, at a cost in excess of $29.7 trillion new debt, 2.3 million boots in Iraq, Afghanistan,. Those two wars have not made America safer, put us more at risk, made us more vulnerable.
Yes, all scenarios are growth killers. No, you can’t count on Bill O’Neil’s endless bull/bear cycles. And yet we’re addicted to them, can’t stop our insanity … without a wake-up call. It’s coming.
Warning to all investors. Reread Buffett’s warning: “There will be another bubble leading to a huge recession … I guarantee it.” But worse, this time, global macroeconomic trends threaten no-growth recovery, a long bear market, and long-term austerity. Start planning now.
The Grand Tradeoff of Risk/Innovation/Growth and Financial Security
…Central banks have so far been able to manipulate interest rates to allow governments to service their debt at low costs, averting market seizures, Kaye said. Still, the next big rally in precious-metal prices may be 18 months to two years away, triggered by a “financial catastrophe,” he added.
Here are some money quotes:
Risk cannot be eliminated, it can only be suppressed or transferred to others.
In promising financial security to hundreds of millions of citizens, Central States have in effect claimed that risk–that the promises cannot be kept–has been eliminated. This is an ontological impossibility. Risk cannot be eliminated, it can only be pushed beneath the surface or transferred to others.
Promising financial security is also promising that risk has been systemically eliminated. This is the fundamental dynamic of the “social contract” that underpins societies and economies from Europe to Japan. It is a social contract constructed on an ontological illusion.
2013: ‘The End Game’- Is the Big Reset Imminent?
Raoul Paul sent shock-waves throughout the financial markets in June in what Tyler Durden called the scariest presentation ever, when Paul predicted a complete systemic collapse of the financial system was merely 6-9 months away. Is the Big Reset still imminent?
‘The world has no engine of growth with most of the G20 countries approaching stall speed at the same time. The western world is about to enter its second recession in an ongoing depression…
For the first time since the 1930?s we are entering a recession- before industrial production, durable goods orders, employment, and private sector GDP have made back their previous highs. ‘
As to the timing of the collapse Paul states:
‘2012- 2013 will usher in the end. We have about 6 months left… Assume that no one and nothing is safe. After that, we put on our tin helmets and hide until the new system emerges.
Ron Paul’s Texas Straight Talk: Fiat Currency is NOT Wealth!
from RonPaulCC2012 :
Caught on tape. Dear Leader in his own words.
China, Japan, And The US – Tying It All Together
As Japan and China increase naval and air activity around the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea, the United States is steadily increasing its active involvement to reassure Tokyo and send a warning to Beijing. But Beijing may seek an opportunity to challenge U.S. primacy in what China considers its territorial waters.
The United States is monitoring Chinese air activity from E-3 Sentry aircraft based at Kadena air base on Okinawa in response to increasing incidents of Chinese combat and surveillance aircraft shadowing U.S. P-3C and C-130 flights near the Ryukyu islands, according to Japanese and Korean media reports. Chinese pilots are more actively shadowing U.S. military aircraft flying through the airspace between China and Japan. Chinese aircraft have also reportedly violated Japanese airspace near the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands several times since mid-December, prompting Japan to send its aircraft, including F-15Js, to monitor Chinese actions. ?