Where do you look for what is really going on with sales? Denninger lays it out in simple terms.
By Daniel at 14 January, 2010, 5:01 pm
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Sales tax receipts. This is virtually the only economic “count” that is not subject to being gamed when it comes to the current picture for consumer spending. Since personal consumption accounts for 70% of the US economy, this is the most-accurate indicator we have. It is both timely reported (monthly) and reliable, as no business will report and remit taxes that were not collected on actual sales. At the same time under-reporting (that is, refusing to pay taxes that are actually due) is punitive enough and caught quickly enough that most businesses will not attempt to cheat. Non-discretionary items (food and medicine) in most jurisdictions are not taxed, so this indicator has reasonable accuracy when it comes to what matters in the economy - discretionary spending. Finally, the tax is proportional, not regressive or progressive, so changes are proportional to actual discretionary spending.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1835-A-Macro-Level-Look-At-The-Economy.html
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We are still losing tax revenues in most categories and that is a better indicator of what is going on than the “opinions” we get daily from the media.
As cities and states cut spending and jobs even more, look for this number to get even worse.
- JanPaul
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