Why do I think the “seasonal adjustments” for unemployment are no longer valid?
By Daniel at 8 February, 2010, 12:01 pm
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Because they are set for good economic times where there are swings of unemployment levels quickly taken up in hiring in following months. So the “factors” were developed to “smooth” out those peaks and valleys. This is not necessarily a bad thing. Look at the trends for several better economic years - numbers are in 1,000’s:
2003 Jan 9,395
2003 Feb 9,260
2003 Mar 9,018
2003 Apr 8,501
2003 May 8,500
2003 Jun 9,649
2003 Jul 9,319
2003 Aug 8,830
2003 Sep 8,436
2003 Oct 8,169
2003 Nov 8,269
2003 Dec 7,945
2004 Jan 9,144
2004 Feb 8,770
2004 Mar 8,834
2004 Apr 7,837
2004 May 7,792
2004 Jun 8,616
2004 Jul 8,518
2004 Aug 7,940
2004 Sep 7,545
2004 Oct 7,531
2004 Nov 7,665
2004 Dec 7,599
2005 Jan 8,444
2005 Feb 8,549
2005 Mar 7,986
2005 Apr 7,335
2005 May 7,287
2005 Jun 7,870
2005 Jul 7,839
2005 Aug 7,327
2005 Sep 7,259
2005 Oct 6,964
2005 Nov 7,271
2005 Dec 6,956
2006 Jan 7,608
2006 Feb 7,692
2006 Mar 7,255
2006 Apr 6,804
2006 May 6,655
2006 Jun 7,341
2006 Jul 7,602
2006 Aug 7,086
2006 Sep 6,625
2006 Oct 6,272
2006 Nov 6,576
2006 Dec 6,491
2007 Jan 7,649
2007 Feb 7,400
2007 Mar 6,913
2007 Apr 6,532
2007 May 6,486
2007 Jun 7,295
2007 Jul 7,556
2007 Aug 7,088
2007 Sep 6,952
2007 Oct 6,773
2007 Nov 6,917
2007 Dec 7,371
2008 Jan 8,221
You can see surges in unemployment in Jan that get pulled back with jobs until the schools and factories go on summer shutdowns in Jun/Jul, then pull back again through the strong retail seasons in the fall. Now, look at the time period from 2008 to NOW:
2007 Dec 7,371
2008 Jan 8,221
2008 Feb 7,953
2008 Mar 8,027
2008 Apr 7,287
2008 May 8,076
2008 Jun 8,933
2008 Jul 9,433
2008 Aug 9,479
2008 Sep 9,199
2008 Oct 9,469
2008 Nov 10,015
2008 Dec 10,999
2009 Jan 13,009
2009 Feb 13,699
2009 Mar 13,895
2009 Apr 13,248
2009 May 13,973
2009 Jun 15,095
2009 Jul 15,201
2009 Aug 14,823
2009 Sep 14,538
2009 Oct 14,547
2009 Nov 14,407
2009 Dec 14,740
2010 Jan 16,147
The Jan numbers are much higher than the previous year, the Jun/Jul 2008 numbers are followed by a fall much worse! Then Jan 2009 is followed by no drop, only gains! The summer reflects the shutdown of the auto industry, but the fall shows little improvement. If Feb remains up around 16 million, the numbers for May will be well over 11%! By the fall we will be over that number in time for the elections, a perfect storm for the Democratic Party that spent a WHOLE YEA R on it’s agenda and telling everyone the recession was over - while all the TRUE economic numbers such as tax receipts were plummeting around them!
So, the “seasonal numbers” will now only provide for wild swings in the unemployment numbers as the actual economic fall depends.
- irishscot2
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