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World Recession Update


by Dwaine van Vuuren, Financial Sense:

We have quarterly GDP data for 11 more OECD countries since our last post “World plunges into recession in Q42012“, and there have been some 2nd estimate revisions (such as the U.S). The chart below shows an improvement over the last post we made with the inclusion of more data points, but both the measures of single and two quarter recession metrics are still below their respective “Global Recession” thresholds:

The table below plots the last 20 quarters (5 years) of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth. With most of those countries still outstanding fresh data (tagged “…”) hovering on the brink, there are going to have to be some hefty upward revisions and re-estimations to improve matters from here. It is interesting to note that the equally-weighted average GDP growth has now fallen into negative territory for one quarter, although the GDP-weighted one has not.

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