With the upcoming midterm elections inching closer, the Democrats’ odds of flipping the Senate are looking weaker and weaker, thereby increasing the pressure to secure the House in order to act as any sort of legislative check on President Donald Trump.
A new Axios/SurveyMonkey poll shows that the Democratic Party is poised to lose three seats to Republicans in the midterm elections: Republican Mike Braun has a 2-point lead on Sen. Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Rick Scott has a 3-point lead on Sen. Bill Nelson of Florida and Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer has a 5-point lead on Sen. Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota.
Democrats, who have 49 Senate seats at the moment, look likely to win two GOP-held seats, with Arizona Democrat Kyrsten Sinema leading three Arizona Republican candidates and Nevada’s Jacky Rosen leading GOP Sen. Dean Heller by 3 points. In addition, Democratic Senators Joe Manchin in West Virginia and Jon Tester in Montana are now leading by double digits to GOP candidates.
Still, that won’t be enough for Democrats to flip the chamber. To capture the Senate, Democrats would need to pick up 10 seats they’re defending in states Trump won in 2016, plus secure an extra two. Republicans are likely to secure their seat in Tennessee, where Marsha Blackburn has a 14-point lead on Democrat Phil Bredesen.
“It’s looking nearly impossible for Democrats to take back the Senate,” Axios concluded.
Don’t get cocky, kids. And if you care about what happens, find a close race and donate or volunteer.
BLUE WAVE? Heidi Heitkamp faces reality of losing seat as race re-classified to ’tilt Republican.’
The classification increases the pressure on Heitkamp, who has been busy forging herself as a moderate Democrat not afraid to work with President Donald Trump and Republicans while fighting for the interests of North Dakotans.
Heitkamp has been forced to move toward the center because she’s defending a seat in a state that Trump won by more than 30 points over Hillary Clinton in 2016. To make matters worse, Heitkamp endorsed Clinton during the 2016 presidential race, an endorsement she has since rescinded.
When Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy announced his retirement, Heitkamp’s plate became even fuller. To appease North Dakota voters and help herself in November, Heitkamp will likely be forced to vote against her party and in favor of whoever Trump nominates to the Supreme Court.
To put it kindly, Heitkamp is vulnerable and Inside Elections’ analysis only confirms what political observers predicted about the race.
Don’t get cocky.
PAUL BEDARD: Poll: Most ‘better off financially’ under Trump than Obama.
For the second time in two weeks, a new national survey has found that most Americans — and especially Hispanics — feel that they are better off under President Trump than they were under former President Obama.
The latest survey is from Emerson College which on Monday said that 42 percent feel better off, compared to 26 percent who feel worse off. Some 30 percent said that their financial situation is about the same as it was in 2016.
The mid-year Emerson College ePoll also found that Trump’s job approval rating has increased to 43 percent and it gave credit to the financial confidence people are feeling.
“The financial situation of voters could be a major reason for the improvement in Trump’s approval rating. When asked if they (voters) were better or worse off financially than they were two years ago 42 percent responded better off, while 26 percent said worse off. Males appear to be doing better in a Trump economy than females: 49 percent of males reported doing better, while 21 percent said they were doing worse. Alternatively 36 percent of females reported they were better off, while 30 percent said they were doing worse. Perceptions of the financial situation varied by party and race, Democrats had the lowest improvement at 33 percent, with 32 percent doing worse. Among Hispanics, a distinct majority – 62 percent believed they were better off,” said Emerson.
Another poll from Zogby Analytics also found that voters feel their finances will be better in four years under Trump.
So we’ll find out if “it’s the economy, stupid” is still the rule.