Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner made a huge call at the end of January 2020. Nenner said, “I am more worried about the market going down 40% than making 5% more on the upside.” The market topped a few weeks later (2% higher) and then plunged 38% for the next several weeks. Spot on call. Nenner also said he was “more worried about domestic civil unrest than war in a foreign land.” We had Antifa and BLM rioting, looting and burning in Portland, Minneapolis, Chicago, New York and many other cities for most of 2020. This was, yet, another spot on call. What’s Nenner seeing now? Nenner says, “ I have a chart going back to the 1900’s, and if you connect all the tops, the tops of 1929, top in the 1960’s, 1987, . . . we are up to the trend line again. It seems very, very unusual to break a trend line that dates back for 100 years. So, risk is very high. . . .We are totally out of the market. . . .We have been out for three or four weeks. . . .We have the same thing as before. People are more afraid to miss 4% on the upside than 50% on the downside. That’s human nature.”
How low can the market go from here? Nenner says, “20,000 or lower is my call.” I asked Nenner, “You think the market could get cut in half?” Nenner replied, “Yes.”
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