by Glenn West (follow Glenn on Twitter) of West Pacific Trading Analytics
WestPacific Market Analytics
Weekly Market Forecaster Newsletter wstpacglenn@gmail.com
Special Report
It has come to my attention that there is a lot of talk around the internet about ‘blood moons’ and a crash window from January 18th into February 7th
I only listen to one thing and that is the models. When I heard such – the first place I went was just there, to my models. The best idea in life and in trading is to have a
plan and be aware at all times to the ongoing. Today, I find this more important than perhaps anytime in our lives with the markets. It has little to do with ‘blood moons’ and everything to do with the FEDERAL RESERVE BANK!
What I see here is warning signals flashing in my signature ‘crash models’, these are not models to ignore. One is even modeled after the late and great George Lindsay’s ideas, perhaps the best trader of all time! This is a model to take very seriously as you do not mess around with a Lindsay prediction!
We have a plan in place and if the panic starts to set in we will see it and be the first out the door. A crash does not occur in one day, it builds upon itself over a week or several into a panic.
This may all pass, the FED may decide to let it go on this bubble, but you should be prepared. It could be a false warning or it may not be. A friend said it like this ‘all those buyers with predictions of exceptionally rising markets: right” or just required pawns in the game that get to pay a heavy price for the part they play? ‘
A reminder -In a panic crash you must not be short any leveraged ETFs due to counter party risk. Due to this ‘counter party risk’ all players short or long lose 100% of their investment so tread carefully what you play. And yes to all you Gold and Silver holders by 2064 you will have beaten inflation, it is wise to own a little of the metal.
West
WestPacific Market Analytics
Weekly Trading Forecaster Newsletter wstpacglenn@gmail.com
Monthly Key Model
-Here note the lower Oscillator and the sell signal, that is something to take serious. This is the first signal since the crash of 2008. Also take note of that big Oscillator built into the model and how it is setting up for a bearish cross-under. That does not mean a crash is going to happen and this could all go away in a few weeks, but when it signals we step up our level of awareness and monitoring.
Weekly Key Model
-In this Quarterly Model you can see some warning are flashing with the Oscillators, being a Quarterly Model this could be too early this warning and we could be early on the call. My other models point to a top out into the end of 2020, but risks here are no doubt elevated. One but rest alert going into the next two years.
Rescued Model
If The FED wants to save it is up to them here!
-The FED saved the market twice in the past decade and now one must ask several very critical questions:
1: Are they ready to do it again?
2: Have we are last reached the zero hour and they have decided to bust the bubble and end this charade?
3: Or are they going to rescue it again and let it inflate into the 2020 October elections?
-The only one that can prevent a crash here is THE FED!! The coming January 30th FED Meeting could be the most critical in since the FED was founded in 1913.
-And think, all this is happening as Davos is going on, US is not there and one must wonder the why!
-HAS THE ZERO HOUR AT LASTR ARRIVED; we shall know soon.
FED AND 1929
-We finish with two models with no comment as they speak for themselves.
The Great Depression
-A page from the history books, are the Central Banks setting up Depression 2 and for what purpose! Or do we see another rescue! Interesting times.
West
WestPacific Market Analytics wstpacglenn@gmail.com
I write the WestPacific Weekly Forecaster Newsletter on market and trades, along with our member private Twitter page with Daily updates and Trading Models.