Here i will post excerpts from comments made by weather forcasters and fanatics today on a weather forum just to give you an idea of the sort of weather the computers are now forcasting and they are entering a reliable timeframe now. These excripts were recorded from the 26th to the 28th
“We are getting to the reliable timeframe now and these charts are rock solid consistent so far.
Still time for things to go wrong, but a historic April cold spell is definitely possible now and may soon be probable.
”
“If this cold spell verifies as it’s been implied then this could cause some serious damage ”
“It is highly unlikely to verify as shown in the GFS 06z op run but for information the 500-1000hPa thickness here at 228hr was a remarkable 507dam!
That is truly unbelievable. I guess if it’s going to hit us, it may as well be record breaking. Personally I want this like a bullet in the head, but what will be will be.”
“The GFS12z has a 1104hpa greenland high.
I’m not kidding.”
“The record for April is -1.1C
This chart is beyond insane.”
‘ve hunted for exceptionally cold ensembles for several years. Occasionally you find record breakers.
”
The all time UK record T850, as far as I’m aware is -19.5C which was set in Kent during the January 1987 cold wave.
In actuality I’ve never seen T850s lower than about -17C (possibly set during the 2018 cold spell) but occasionally you do get ensemble forecasts that get a bit lower. I’ve seen some ensembles get to around -21C for example.
But never, never have I seen -23.5C which is extraordinary before we even discuss the month.”
“To even see this is extraordinary. Again I’ve hunted for cold ensembles for years and the coldest I’ve managed is about -21C and it goes without saying always in the depth of Winter.”
“-20C almost down to East Anglia – what sort of maxs are looking at here.”
“Extremely high *(record) MSL pressure projected over Greenland: up to 1100mb at 9GMT next Sunday!
Record MSLP is from Siberia at just 1083.8mb.”
“HOLY MOTHER OF JESUS.
ONE ENSEMBLE HAS -24C ON THE SHETLAND ISLES WITH -26C KNOCKING AT THE DOOR.
”
“The all time minimax record should be fairly easy to beat given the right conditions”
“FOUND IT.
IN ALL THAT’S HOLY WHAT THE S1HT IS THIS?!
And this isn’t even the only one with sub -20Cs to the UK.”
Pertubation 29 probably deserves a mention for being one of the most extreme charts I would ever have seen (until this week).
But the fact this isn’t even the coldest one says it all.”
“To be honest I’m pretty sure the ensemble average wouldn’t be far off the all time coldest April T850 while the upper quartile would definitely be there. The coldest ensemble smashes the all time (January) record ofc.
The way the cold plunge piles down from the Arctic like an express train looks like the east-west jet stream has just tuned 90 degrees and is now north to south. It hasn’t of course, but the cold keeps tumbling…and not much sign of a sustained warm up from the extended charts.
Is this to be a year without a summer like 1888? Too early to call that, but whilst sunny days will make ice-days difficult, an overcast day and snow fall could be – with those uppers.
h/t Agent Smith 2014
Disclaimer: This content does not necessarily represent the views of IWB.