WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The last time the U.S. unemployment rate fell below 3%, as one Federal Reserve official has predicted it will this year, the Korean War was nearing its end and a recession that saw legions of workers lose their jobs was just around the corner.
While the circumstances were unusual, it nonetheless presented a now-familiar pattern – a falling unemployment rate eventually giving way to recession – that current Fed officials will be challenged to avoid as they try to slow the fast pace of inflation without wrecking an expansion that is delivering strong gains for workers.
Emblematic of the current confidence in the job market’s strength, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard last week said he expects the U.S. unemployment rate to fall below 3% this year. That flashback to the 1950s in itself would be a warning for some economists.
Alexis Abell recently walked out of a BJ’s Wholesale Club outside Buffalo, N.Y., with 24 boxes of Kraft Macaroni & Cheese, a box of 50 frozen mozzarella sticks, a 40-pound bag of basmati rice and a 12-can pack of garbanzo beans.
“I don’t want to be in a position again where I can’t get something,” says Ms. Abell, a 41-year-old mother of five, who was laid off from her retail job at a quilt shop in 2020 and decided not to return to work.
She estimates her family is now spending about 25% more a week on food and staples than before the pandemic, and she is buying more than twice as much of some staples and household supplies.
“The stimulus money is gone, but we’ve gotten used to having more on hand and I’m cooking more at home, so I expect this to continue,” she says.
www.wsj.com/articles/two-years-into-pandemic-shoppers-are-still-hoarding-11644253233